पाकिस्तान की राजनीतिक अर्थव्यवस्था पर ऐतिहासिक प्रभाव

पिछली अर्धशती में दक्षिण एशिया में घटने वाली घटनाओं से यूरोपीय उपनिवेशवाद से त्रस्त क्षेत्रों में स्वाधीनता की प्रक्रिया आरंभ हुई. 1947 में ब्रिटिश भारत जहां भारत और पाकिस्तान दो राज्यों में बंटा, वहीं 1971 में पाकिस्तान से पृथक बांग्लादेश का निर्माण हुआ. इसी प्रकार एशिया व अफ्रीका में अनेक देश यूरोपीय साम्राज्य से स्वाधीन हुए, उत्तर-उपनिवेश काल में इनकी प्रशासनिक और राजनीतिक प्रक्रियाओं में भिन्नताएं व्याप्त हैं. इनमें से अधिकांश परम्परायें उपनिवेशीय शासन के दौरान स्थापित हुईं और कुछ परिवर्तनों के साथ निरन्तर बनी हुई हैं. इन उभरते परिदृश्यों को समझने के लिए तुलनात्मक एवं देश अथवा क्षेत्र विशेष के स्तर पर शोध हुए हैं. प्रस्तुत लेख, दक्षिण एशियाई क्षेत्र पर केन्द्रित होते हुए भी पाकिस्तान की घटनाओं पर प्रकाश डालेगा. यह लेख विस्तृत ऐतिहासिक प्रवृत्तियों का विश्लेषण करता है जिससे राजनीतिक अर्थव्यवस्था की समकालीन संरचनाओं और प्रक्रियाओं को बेहतर ढंग से समझा जा सके.

पाकिस्तानी क्षेत्र में ब्रिटिश शासन का विस्तार उन्नीसवीं सदी के मध्य हुआ. अट्ठारहवीं सदी के प्रारम्भ में पतनोन्मुख मुगल साम्राज्य का ‘सार्वभौम राज्य’, 1750 के बाद इस क्षेत्र से गायब हो गया. राजनीतिक विखण्डन से उत्पन्न हुई स्थानीय और क्षेत्रीय शक्तियों ने इसका स्थान लिया. अन्तत: ये ब्रिटिश शासन के अधीन हो गये.

इस संक्रमण काल में सामाजिक परिवर्तन के सम्बंध में पंजाब की स्थिति अन्य मुग़ल क्षेत्रों के विपरीत थी. पाकिस्तान की समकालीन राजनीतिक व्यवस्था पर औपनिवेशिक तथा पूर्व-औपनिवेशिक पंजाब की घटनाओं का स्पष्ट प्रभाव है. मुग़ल साम्राज्य के अन्य भागों में संक्रमण अधिक ‘व्यवस्थित’ रहा. इन क्षेत्रों में साम्राज्य के प्रान्तीय राज्यपालों के वंशजों ने शासन किया और साम्राज्य के पतन के साथ ही इन्होंने स्वयं को स्वाधीन घोषित कर दिया. शासन की इस वंश परंपरा में कृषिकीय पदसोपान यथावत् बना रहा और ग्रामीण शक्ति धारक तत्वों का विनाश नहीं हुआ. परिणामत: निम्नतर सामाजिक – आर्थिक स्तर पर भी पारंपरिक जाति एवं वर्ग के सोपान बने रहे. इस प्रकार इस संक्रमण काल में न्यूनतम सामाजिक परिवर्तन हुए और निरंतरताएं बनी रहीं.

परन्तु पंजाब इस प्रतिमान से विलग रहा. वहां सामाजिक पद सोपान ऊपरी वर्गों/शक्तियों को विस्तृत रूप से विस्थापित कर दिया गया. अट्ठारहवीं सदी के प्रारंभ से पंजाब में मुगल शासन के विरुद्ध किसान आन्दोलन ज़ोर पकड़ रहा था. इस प्रतिरोध के स्रोत मुग़ल सैन्य-प्रशासनिक ढांचे के राजस्व वसूली और आर्थिक परजीविता से उत्पन्न आर्थिक दबावों में निहित थे. मुग़ल सेनाओं और क्षेत्रीय अभिजनों द्वारा उभरते किसान विद्रोहों को नियन्त्रित करने के प्रयास दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण रहे. इन प्रवत्तियों से प्राचीन मुग़ल अभिजनों के विशेषाधिकार एवं शक्तियां ही नहीं छिन गई वरन् अन्तत: इनका वास्तव में विनाश हो गया.

Pakistan

पंजाब में शहरी केन्द्र जीवित बने रहे. वस्तुत: उत्तर-मुगल काल में क्षेत्रीय अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में उभार से शहरी केन्द्रों का उत्थान हुआ. विशेषकर दिल्ली शासन के पतन के बाद शहर साहित्यकारों, संगीतज्ञों और भवन निर्माताओं/स्थापत्यकला में निपुण लोगों के आकर्षण का केन्द्र बन गये जिससे(वहां) सांस्कृतिक उत्थान भी हुआ.

मजबूत कृषि आधार वाले मध्य पंजाब के भूमि धारक किसानों ने मुग़ल शासन का लम्बे समय तक सशस्त्र विरोध, मुख्यत: किया. इस हिंसात्मक विरोध का स्रोत, मुग़ल केन्द्र व क्षेत्रीय अभिजनों द्वारा बढ़ते दोहन में निहित था. यह ‘अनुत्पादक’ वर्गों के विस्तार और संसाधनों के अधिकाधिक उपभोग के विरुद्ध कृषि अर्थव्यवस्था की प्रतिक्रिया थी. मुग़ल अति-उपभोग की यह प्रवृत्ति शहरों में सर्वाधिक स्पष्ट थी. इससे कृषि क्षेत्र समाप्तप्राय होने की ओर था.

बाज़ार अर्थव्यवस्था के विस्तार ने स्वयं इस उभरते तनाव में योगदान किया. मुग़लकाल में मध्य-सिन्धु क्षेत्र में उच्च मांग स्तर, अधिक विशेषीकृत और बाजारोन्मुखी कृषि उत्पादन और व्यापार के उच्च स्तर से अधिक शहरीकरण हुआ. अधिक साख आवश्यकताओं, अधिकाधिक वाणिज्यिक लाभ, उच्चतर राजस्वदोहन के कारण व्यापार की शर्ते कृषि उत्पादकों के विरुद्ध हुई होंगी. इन तनावों ने विद्रोही गतिविधियों को उकसाया होगा, जिनसे अन्तत: मुग़ल साम्राज्य अस्थिर हुआ होगा. इसमें आश्चर्य नहीं कि यह प्रतिरोध कृषक समुदाय के आस-पास केन्द्रित था.

शहरी केन्द्रों से उभरते नव प्रवर्तन इस संघर्ष को मोड़ या रोक सकते थे. परन्तु विनिर्माण प्रक्रिया में उल्लेखनीय तकनीकी नव प्रवर्तन हुए ही नहीं. द्वितीयक क्षेत्र के उत्पादकता स्तर को ऊंचा उठाकर कृषि उत्पादों की मांग बढ़ाई जा सकती थी जिससे कृषि क्षेत्र सुदृढ़ होता. साथ ही शहरी उत्पादन प्रणाली संगठनात्मक रूप से परंपरागत, लघु-आकार और श्रेणी आधारित सीमाओं में बंधी रही. इनका निर्धारण आर्थिक श्रम विभाजन के बजाय सोपानीय जातिगत व्यवसाय के आधार पर होता था. मुग़ल राज्य में उत्पादक एवं वाणिज्यिक वर्ग उच्च प्रशासनिक, सैन्य और भूस्वामी वर्ग के गठजोड़ के अधीन था. इस सतत् अधीनता ने वाणिज्यिक वर्ग को भी राजनीतिक अर्थ व्यवस्था की पुनर्संरचना करने से रोका जैसा कि इस वर्ग ने यूरोप में किया था.

इसके विपरीत पंजाब में पुराने क्षेत्रीय अभिजन कृषक लड़ाकों से संघर्ष में नष्ट हो गये. इन्हीं में से सैन्य कार्य के बदले भूमि प्राप्त करने वाले वर्ग का उदय हुआ जिन्हें ब्रिटिश शासन ने देशी रजवाड़ों का नाम दिया. ग्रामीण स्तर पर भी बड़े भूभाग पर भू-स्वामियों के स्वायत्त अधिकार को  ब्रिटिश मान्यता प्राप्त हुई. इस प्रकार पंजाब में अंग्रेजों को एक नवोदित, अधिक लचीला और सहयोगी अभिजन वर्ग प्राप्त हुआ. इसे उन्होंने औपनिवेशिक नीतियों के हित में और सुदृढ़ किया. विद्रोह भड़काने वाले भू-स्वामियों के वंशज, प्रभुत्वशाली कृषक समूह के रूप में, कमीन अथवा नीच कहलाने वाले सेवक और श्रमिक जातियों से उच्चतर सोपान पर बने रहे. ये निम्न जातियां, ग्रामीण क्षेत्र में बहुसंख्यक होने, और अपने आस-पास राजनीतिक व सामाजिक संक्रमण के बावजूद निम्नस्तर पर बनी रहीं.

अट्ठारहवीं सदी के इस संक्रमण से पंजाब के शहरी क्षेत्र, विशेषकर बड़े शहर भी पीड़ित रहे. कृषक उभार में अनेक अंलकरणों और संचित संपत्ति को निशाना बनाया गया. पंजाब में शहरों का पतन भी अन्य प्रांतों में शहरों के उत्थान से विपरीत रहा था.

वस्तुत: पंजाब में ब्रिटिश शासन के अन्तर्गत कृषकीय पदसोपान और सुदृढ़ हुए, जबकि भारत के अन्य भागों में स्थापित कृषक अभिजनों से उनका संघर्ष हुआ. 1857-58 का भारतीय विद्रोह भी गंगा की घाटी में व्याप्त उन्हीं तनावों का परिणाम था जिससे ब्रिटिश राजस्व नीतियों ने पुराने स्थापित कृषि जागीरदारों/वसूलीकारों पर कब्जा करना शुरू किया. पंजाब में अंग्रेजों ने कृषकीय पदसोपान से समान अधिकारधारकों जैसा व्यवहार किया. उन्होंने प्रभुत्वशाली कृषक जातियों और उच्च अधिकार प्राप्त वर्गों के संपदा अधिकारों को मान्यता प्रदान की.

ब्रिटिश काल में भी सिंधु के मैदान में उल्लेखनीय शहरी विकास नहीं हुआ. निरंतर ग्रामीणकरण/ग्राम्यकरण/देहातीकरण से प्राथमिक व द्वितीयक क्षेत्रों के विस्तार में संतुलन नहीं रहा. पंजाब व सिंध में शहरी समाज अप्रभावी था. सीमान्त प्रदेश ओर बलूचिस्तान में जनजातीय सरदारों को सुदृढ़ करके उनकी परंपरागत सत्ता प्रणाली जिरगा को कायम रखा. स्वतंत्रता प्राप्ति के समय तक पाकिस्तान प्रमुखत: एक ग्रामीण, निम्न साक्षरता और निम्न आधारभूत संरचना वाला राज्य था. जल-विद्युत उत्पादन का विकास नहीं हुआ था और वहां मात्र 12000 टेलीफोन लाइनें थीं.

कृषि अभिजनों के सुदृढ़ीकरण के अनेक रूप उभरे. प्रथम, इस क्षेत्र ने 1857 के विद्रोह में भाग लेने के बजाय जन और धन से अंग्रेजों की सहायता की. तब अंग्रेजों ने इसे सैन्यीकृत अर्थव्यवस्था में परिवर्तित कर रूस, अफगानिस्तान और मध्य एशिया से संघर्ष के खेल में उपयोगी आधार का रूप दे दिया. ब्रिटिश भारतीय सेना के रंगरूटों में आधे से अधिक अकेले पंजाबी कृषक जातियों से थे, जिन्होंने दोनों विश्व युद्धों में विशाल मानव संसाधन उपलब्ध कराये.

सर्वाधिक महत्वपूर्ण रूप से नये नहर-सिंचित क्षेत्रों में विस्तृत भूमि बन्दोबस्त से प्रभुत्वशाली कृषक समूहों और औपनिवेशिक शासन का गठबन्धन मजबूत हुआ. 1880 से नहर कालोनी नामक इस क्षेत्र द्वारा सिन्धु घाटी की अर्थव्यवस्था एवं परिस्थितिकी में महत्वपूर्ण परिवर्तन आया  जो वर्तमान पाकिस्तानी अर्थव्यवस्था का आधार बना. पंजाब के दोआब और सिंध के मैदान में सदानीर नहरों का विशाल जाल बिछ गया.

इस कृषि उपनिवेशीकरण योजना का लाभ पूर्व भू-स्वामियों को ही मिला जिनमें अधिकांश बड़ी संख्या में सैनिक उपलब्ध कराने वाले जिलों के थे. इससे वंचित भूमिहीनों और सेवक जातियों की स्थिति और बदतर हुई. इस योजना से अत्यधिक लाभान्वित बड़े भू-स्वामियों का सिंध की राजनीति पर आज भी प्रभुत्व है. पंजाब में भी राष्ट्रवादी शक्तियों के विरुद्ध अंग्रेजों का साथ देने वाले बड़े भू-स्वामियों को 100-500 एकड़ तक के विशाल भूखण्ड उपलब्ध कराये गये. अधिकांश नहर कालोनी प्रभुत्वशाली कृषकों के लिए आरक्षित थी. इससे कृषक समूहों को राष्ट्रवाद की ओर गतिमान करने वाला आर्थिक दबाव स्थगित हो गया जो दक्षिण एशिया के अन्य भागों में सक्रिय था. वाणिज्यिक रूप से मूल्यवान नये भू-संसाधनों पर एकाधिकार प्राप्त वर्ग को सीमीत मताधिकार प्रदान किया गया. इस प्रकार, ग्रामीण एवं शहरी निम्न-वर्ग के राजनीतिक बर्हिवेशन को संस्थानीकृत कर दिया गया.

कृषि औपनिवेशीकरण से सेना भी अत्यधिक लाभान्वित हुई. बड़ी संख्या में सेना के पेंशनरों और विश्व युद्ध के वरिष्ठ सैनिकों को भूमि प्रदान की गई. सेना द्वारा प्रयुक्त जानवरों के प्रजनन के लिए विस्तृत भू-क्षेत्र आरक्षित कर लिया गया. उपनिवेशवाद के अन्तर्गत सेना का आर्थिक संसाधनों पर अत्यधिक नियन्त्रण और इसका सामाजिक राजनीतिक सत्ता से निकट सम्बन्ध, स्वतन्त्रता केबाद पाकिस्तानी राज्य पर इसके प्रभुत्व का कारण बना.

कृषि औपनिवेशीकरण के माध्यम से नागरिक प्रशासन/नौकरशाही भी अत्यधिक मज़बूत हुई. नहरों द्वारा सिंचाई के कारण सिंधु में एक जल चालित समाज का जन्म हुआ और जल जैसा सीमित और महत्वपूर्ण संसाधन प्रशासनिक नियन्त्रण में आ गया. काश्तकार अब सरकार पर अधिक निर्भर हो गये. केन्द्रीकृत सिंचाई प्रबंधन ने नागरिकों की राज्य के प्रति अधीनता और बढ़ा दी. प्रत्येक नहर परियोजना में भूमि पर वितरण का प्रबंधन सरकार के राजस्व विभाग द्वारा होता था. बड़े भूस्वामियों द्वारा जल एवं भूमि वितरण कार्य में घूस अथवा अनुचित साधनों के द्वारा अनियमितताओं को बढ़ावा दिया गया. अंग्रेजों ने इसे रोकने के प्रयास नहीं किये क्योंकि वे अपने इस महत्वपूर्ण सहयोगी समूह को खोना नहीं चाहते थे. 1947 के बाद अनुचित प्रवृत्ति अधिक तीव्रता से पुन: उभरी.

इन नीतियों के उभरते राष्ट्रवाद को संतुलित कर दिया. केवल सीमान्त प्रदेश में गफ्फार खां के नेतृत्व में लाल कुर्ती आन्दोलन के माध्यम से राष्ट्रवादी राजनीति विकसित हुई. 1947 के बाद पाकिस्तानी शक्ति संरचना द्वारा इसके नेताओं को हाशिये पर डाल दिया गया. सिंध की राजनीति पर अंग्रेज परस्त बड़े भू-स्वामियों का वर्चस्व बना रहा. पंजाब में जिन्ना और मुस्लिम राष्ट्रवाद को विरोध का समाना करना पड़ा. 1936 के चुनाव में ब्रिटिश प्रायोजित यूनियनिस्ट पार्टी ने जिन्ना व लीग को स्तब्ध कर दिया. 1937 के सिकन्दर-जिन्ना समझौते द्वारा यूनियनिस्टों ने प्रादेशिक लीग पर कब्जा कर उसे नियन्त्रण में ले लिया. हां, 1942 के बाद असंतुष्ट यूनियनिस्टों ने जिन्ना से पंजाब की राजनीति में साम्प्रदायिक लाइन पर हस्तक्षेप की मांग की. इसके बाद वहां मुस्लिम राष्ट्रवाद तेजी से बढ़ा. परन्तु राजनीति पर भू-स्वामियों का नियन्त्रण बना रहा जो नये पाकिस्तान में भी कायम रहा.

हिन्दू और सिख व्यवसायियों और उद्यमियों के प्रभुत्वशाली मध्य वर्ग के वाह्य प्रवास से पाकिस्तान में शहरी व द्वितीयक क्षेत्र की दुर्बलता और बढ़ी. इन गैर-मुस्लिमों को विस्थापित करने में, मुस्लिम आर्थिक राष्ट्रवाद प्रमुख कारक था. बुर्जुआ प्रकृति को बाधित कर एक अधिक संतुलित राजनीतिक अर्थव्यवस्था के विकास के रूप में इसका विस्तृत प्रभाव पड़ा.

बाज़ार अर्थव्यवस्था के विकास के सामाजिक परिणामों पर प्रभावी रूप से आरोपित ये बाधायें, ‘पिछड़ेपन’ का (स्थायी) कारण थीं. पंजाब भू-अधिकार हस्तांरण अधिनियम 1901 जैसे रूढ़िवादी कानून ने भी बाज़ारी शक्तियों को बाधित किया. इससे गैर-कृषकों द्वारा कृषक जातियों से भूमि खरीदने पर प्रतिबंध लग गया. औपनिवेशिक शासन व उच्च कृषक वर्ग के इस गठबंधन ने पाकिस्तानी क्षेत्र में ‘राष्ट्रवाद  को बाधित’ किया.

1947 के बाद पाकिस्तान में भारत के समान भारतीय राष्ट्रीय कांग्रेस जैसे विस्तृत राजनीतिक संगठन का अभाव था. कांग्रेस ने धनी कृषकों, उद्योगपतियों, मध्य वर्ग जैसे सभी वर्गों का समर्थन हासिल करते हुए जनतांत्रिक व्यवस्था को स्थायित्व प्रदान किया और (शासन के सैन्य अधिग्रहण का निवारण करते हुए जनतांत्रिक संस्थाओं को सुरक्षित रखा).

पाकिस्तान में, मुस्लिम लीग भू-स्वामियों के राजनीतिक हितों का गठबंधन साबित हुई. 1947 से पहले यह विस्तृत आधार वाला राजनीतिक संगठन न बन सकी. 1947 के बाद यह गुटों मे बंट गई और राजनीति में संगठनात्मक निर्वात बना रहा. राजनीतिक धड़ों की अन्तर्कलह और आम चुनाव कराने में असफलता ने अन्तत: 1958 में सैन्य विद्रोह के द्वारा नागरिक राजनीति को ग्रहण लगा दिया.

अयूब ख़ान का सैन्य शासन भी वास्तविक राजनीतिक संगठनों के विकास के विरुद्ध था यद्यपि 1964 के सीमित मताधिकार चुनावों द्वारा आंशिक सहभागिता स्वीकृत हुई. इससे राजनीतिक संगठनों की बजाय अधिकृत व्यक्तियों के गुटों ने विधायिका व चुनाव प्रचार प्रक्रिया पर प्रभुत्व जमाया.

साठ के दशक में त्वरित औद्योगिक संबृद्धि से आय एवं क्षेत्रीय असमानताओं में वृद्धि हुई. बाइस औद्योगिक अल्पाधिकारी परिवारों में धन का संकेन्द्रण हुआ और कामगारों की वास्तविक मज़दूरी स्थिर रही. अल्प राजनीतिक प्रतिनिधित्व और अपने कृषि निर्यात क्षेत्र से पश्चिमी पाकिस्तान में औद्योगिकरण निवेश के लिए संसाधनों के हस्तांरण के कारण पूर्वी पाकिस्तान में अत्यधिक असंतोष व्याप्त हो गया. इससे अन्तत: गृह युद्ध और बांग्लादेश का निर्माण हुआ. 1970 के उफान में अयूब शासन के पतन के बाद पाकिस्तान पीपुल्स पार्टी के नेता जुल्फिकार अली भुट्टो ने समाजवादी आधार पर चुनाव लड़ा और 1977 तक शासन किया. भुट्टो के आर्थिक निर्णय बाज़ार-आधारित विकास के विरुद्ध रहे. राजनीतिक रूप से उन्होंने पीपुल्स पार्टी को जनतांत्रिक संगठन में बदलने में रुचि नहीं दिखाई. पार्टी आन्तरिक रूप से सत्तावादी होने के साथ-साथ प्रतियोगी राजनीतिज्ञों के प्रति निरंकुश बनी रही. 1977 के चुनावों  में भुट्टो की पार्टी पर बड़े पैमाने पर अनियमितता के आरोप लगे और परिणामत: जनरल ज़ियाउलहक के नेतृत्व में सैन्य तख्ता पलट हुआ. भुट्टो को फांसी दी गई.

सैन्य शासन द्वारा लोकतन्त्र को पाकिस्तानी समाज के लिए अनुपयुक्त बताते हुए प्रतिनिधि संस्थाओं को और कमज़ोर किया गया. राजनीतिक आज्ञाकारिता को लागू करने और सत्तावाद को तार्किक ठहराने हेतु धार्मिक सिद्धान्तों और रहस्यवाद का उपयोग किया गया. अफ़गान युद्ध और सोवियत विघटन के ‘महान खेल’ में पाकिस्तान का ‘अग्रिम पंक्ति’ के राज्य के रूप में प्रस्तुत होना कहीं अधिक दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण रहा. इस वैश्विक परिणाम को सुगम बनाने हेतु पाकिस्तान द्वारा जनतांत्रिक अधिकारों को कुचले जाने से जन एवं धन की भारी हानि हुई.

लोकतन्त्र की बहाली के लिए हुए राजनीतिक प्रदर्शनों को कुचले जाने से ज़िया शासन की प्रतिगामी प्रकृति प्रकट हुई. मृत्यु दण्ड से लेकर सार्वजनिक रूप से कोड़े मारने तक की मध्ययुगीन प्रथा, सैन्य शासन की प्रतिशोध की नीति थई. जिया ने अपने नियंत्रण की वैधता के लिए छद्म जनमतसंग्रह कराया और 1985 में गैर-पार्टी चुनाव करवाये. उम्मीदवारों ने व्यक्तिगत क्षमता से चुनाव लड़े जिसमें संस्थानीकृत राजनीति और कमज़ोर हुई. सैन्य शासन के अधीन इन नये राजनीतिज्ञों के लिए आर्थिक लाभ, राजनीतिक सुधारों की अपेक्षा सर्वोपरि रहा. 1988 में रहस्यमय विमान दुर्घटना में ज़िया की मृत्यु से पाकिस्तान में सैनिक शासन का अन्त हुआ.

1988 से 1999 के अगले सैन्य अधिग्रहण के बीच चार आम चुनाव हुए. इसमें बेनज़ीर के नेतृत्व वाली पीपुल्स पार्टी और नवाज़ शरीफ के नेतृत्व वाली मुस्लिम लीग ने बारी-बारी से दो-दो बार सत्ता ग्रहण की. इनमें से कोई भी सरकार अपना पांच वर्ष का कार्यकाल पूरा नहीं कर सकी. पहली तीन को राष्ट्रपति ने बर्खास्त कर दिया जबकि चौथी 1999 के सैनिक विद्रोह द्वारा उखाड़ फेंकी गई. इस प्रकार, बीसवीं सदी के अन्त में पाकिस्तान में नागरिक राजनीति और सैन्य शासन की क्रमश: पुनरावृत्ति हुई. सत्तावाद और शक्ति के संकेन्द्रण की प्रचलित परंपरा दोनों ही में सामान्य रूप से थी, जो 1947 से पूर्व की संरचना पर आधारित थी.

नागरिक शासन के समय में भी व्यक्तिमूलक राजनीति का प्रभुत्व बना रहा. उम्मीदवारों के नामांकन और प्रचार अभियानों में संगठनात्मक सिद्धान्तों की अपेक्षा वैयक्तिक स्थिति निर्णायक तत्व रही. दलों में आन्तरिक लोकतन्त्र और उत्तरदायित्व के अभाव से औपचारिक राजनीति में अपराधी तत्वों का प्रवेश सुगम हुआ. इससे 1990 के दशक में नागरिक राजनीति में भ्रष्टाचार और अपकृत्य को आधार मिला. लोक कार्यपालकों और व्यवसायियों के गठबंधन से अभिजन वर्ग में भी अपराधीकरण फैला और शासन तथा नैतिक अर्थव्यवस्था संकटग्रस्त हुई.

उच्च स्तरीय भ्रष्टाचार से राज्य की अखण्डता और प्रभावकारिता का भी क्षरण हुआ. ब्रिटिश काल में भ्रष्टाचार निचले व स्थानीय कर्मचारियों के स्तर पर था जो स्वतंत्रता के बाद नौकरशाही के सर्वोच्च स्तरों तक फैल गया. इससे उत्तरदायित्व और पारदर्शिता का ह्रास हुआ जिससे अनाचार और बढ़ा. पुलिस, राजस्व, लोक सेवाओं, सिंचाई, न्याय पालिका के साथ-साथ स्वास्थ्य शिक्षा, स्थानीय शासन जैसे सामाजिक सेवा क्षेत्र में भी भ्रष्टाचार व्याप्त हो गया. भ्रष्टाचार, अनियमितता और अवैधता की दुराभिसंधि को राजनीतिज्ञों के गठजोड़ से और बढ़ावा मिला. इससे जनसमूह निरंतर शक्ति विहीन होता गया.

1947 से नाम मात्र के तीन भूमि सुधारों के बावजूद किसानों को वास्तविक भूमि हस्तांरण नहीं हो सका. इससे उच्च कृषिकीय सोपान के वर्गहित संरक्षित रहे. राज्य कृषि आय पर कर लगाने में भी असफल रहा. राजस्व प्राप्ति का भार कथित रूप से शहरी आय पर डाल दिया गया.

प्रथम दो दशकों में औद्योगिक विकास एक महत्वपूर्ण नीतिगत निर्णय रहा. इसके लिए प्रारंभिक प्रयास, विदेशी विनिमय अर्जन द्वारा किये गये जो कोरिया युद्ध के समय लाभप्रद व्यापार से प्राप्त हो रहा था. परन्तु विनिमय दर के अधिमूल्यन से कच्चे माल और पूंजीगत वस्तुओं का आयात सस्ता हुआ और कृषि निर्यात से अर्जन मन्दा हुआ या घटा; उपभोक्ता वस्तुएं अधिक महंगी हुईं. इन नीतियों से व्यापार की शर्ते कृषि वस्तुओं के विरुद्ध और उभरते उद्योग के पक्ष में हो गईं. सहायता प्राप्त ऋण और संरक्षणात्मक तटकरों से उद्योगों को और समर्थन मिला यद्यपि 1950 के दशक में कृषि आय और मज़दूरों की वास्तविक मज़दूरी स्थिर रही जिससे उपभोग मांगे कमज़ोर रहीं. इस संभाव्य आर्थिक मन्दी ने 1958 की सैन्य तख्तापलट को प्रोत्साहित किया होगा.

अयूब ख़ान शासन ने भी प्रारंभिक झिझक के बाद व्यापार समर्थक रणनीतियां अपनाईं. लोकतन्त्र के अभाव के कारण निर्णय का वर्चस्व रहा. उच्च पदस्थ नौकरशाहों और सैन्य अधिकारियों के सगे – संबंधियों ने प्रत्यक्ष रूप से व्यापार की ओर रूख किया. राज्य ने खाद्य सुरक्षा के लिए अल्प मूल्यों पर आधारित राशन की दुकानों के माध्यम से हस्तक्षेप किया.

1960 के दशक में बृहद् तनाव उपजने शुरू हुए. 1965 में भारत से युद्ध के कारण आर्थिक संवृद्धि दर में गिरावट हुई. संभवत: पाकिस्तान की चीन से मित्रता के कारण अमरीकी सहायता भी कम हुई और आर्थिक तंगी बढ़ी. क्षेत्रीय विषमताओं से तनावों में और वृद्धि हुई. वास्तविक मज़दूरी में स्थिरता से गरीबी बढ़ी और औद्योगिक एकाधिकारी घरानों में संपत्ति का अधिक संकेन्द्रण हुआ. इसी बीच, हार्वर्ड अर्थशास्त्रियों द्वारा दिये गये ‘प्रकार्यात्मक विषमता’ मॉडल के आधार पर संरचना और शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, कामगारों के लाभ जैसे सामाजिक क्षेत्र में सार्वजनिक व्यय घट गया. राष्ट्रीय बजट में रक्षाव्यय का भाग वृहत्तर हो गया. अनगढ़ बाज़ारों, औद्योगिक अकुशलता के संरक्षण और निहित औद्योगिक स्वार्थों के बढ़ते राजनीतिक प्रभाव ने कष्टों को और बढ़ाया.

सत्तर के दशक में भुट्टो की पीपुल्स पार्टी सरकार ने पूर्व की आर्थिक राजनीति को नाटकीय ढंग से उलट दिया. पुनर्वितरणात्मक नीतियां अपनाई गईं; विशाल उद्योगों का राष्ट्रीयकरण किया गया. बैकों और जीवन बीमा का राष्ट्रीयकरण हुआ. मुद्रा का अवमूल्यन और नवीन श्रम नीति अपनाई गई. ये नीतियां कल्पित रूप से या दिखावे के लिए ही समाजवादी थीं. उद्योग विरोधी झुकाव संभवत: सामन्तवादी पृष्ठभूमि का परिणाम था. भूमि सुधार के उपाय भी कृषि भूमि का वास्तविक पुनर्वितरण न कर सके.

भुट्टो शासन के अन्तर्गत राज्य का हस्तक्षेप निर्णायक रूप से अर्धसामान्ती हितों की अपेक्षा बाज़ारी शक्तियों या बाज़ार कर्मियों के विरुद्ध था. अधिकांश निर्यात उद्योग, घरेलू, मध्यम एवं लघु उद्योग तथा कृषि प्रसंस्करण क्षेत्रों का राष्ट्रीयकरण कर दिया गया. इस प्रकार, निजी क्षेत्र का राष्ट्रीयकरण कर दिया गया. इस प्रकार, निजी क्षेत्र के बहिर्वेशन से पीपुल्स पार्टी को 1977 के चुनावों में भू-स्वामी वर्ग से अधिक समर्थन प्राप्त हुआ. अत: सत्तर के दशक में निजी क्षेत्र द्वारा निवेश में कमी आई.

1985 के लगभग, निवेश स्तर कुछ बढ़ा, परन्तु यह वस्त्र उद्योग के कताई और बुनाई क्षेत्र तक ही सीमित रहा. इस उद्योग का राष्ट्रीयकरण नहीं किया गया था. साथ ही इसे सब्सिडी भी प्राप्त थी. सूती वस्त्र उद्योग का पाकिस्तानी उद्योग में प्रमुख स्थान था. 1985 के बाद नये परिवेश से ‘वस्त्र उद्योग लॉबी’ और मज़बूत हुई.

विविधता के अभाव में अर्थव्यवस्था में संरचनात्मक दुर्बलताएं प्रकट हुईं. 1990 के बाद के बाद कपास उद्योग में आई अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय मन्दी के साथ ही पाकिस्तान में विषाणु जनित रोगों से कच्चे कपास के उत्पादन में गिरावट से राष्ट्रीय अर्थव्यवस्था को गंभीर चोट पहुंची. नये निवेशकों ने अपना जोखिम घटाने के लिए मशीनों के आयात बिल बढ़ा-चढ़ा कर वास्तविक बिल से अधिक का दिखाना शुरू किया. बड़े पैमाने पर अनुत्पादक ऋणों से देश के बैंकिंग और वित्तीय संस्थान दिवालिया होने लगे.

अस्सी के दशक में निजीकरण की गति धीमी और परिवर्तनीय रही. संरक्षणात्मक तटकर से आयात उदारीकरण बाधित रहा. इससे विनिर्माण क्षेत्र अकुशल बना रहा और प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक न बन सका. अस्सी के दशक में उदारीकरण के लिए पर्याप्त अनुकूल आर्थिक व राजनीतिक दशाएं थीं, परन्तु शासकों के हित इसमें प्रमुख बाधा बने रहे.

इस रूढ़िवादिता ने भविष्य के लिए समस्यायें बढ़ा दीं. राज्य के स्वामित्व वाले उद्यमों की विशाल हानियों की भरपाई राजकोष द्वारा की जानी थी. दोषपूर्ण ऋणों से राष्ट्रीयकृत बैक दिवालिया होने लगे. अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय अर्थव्यवस्था में पाकिस्तान नये उभर रहे उद्योगों में प्राप्त होने वाले अवसरों का दोहन करने में असफल रहा. इस बीच पाकिस्तान में जनसंख्या वृद्धि दर तीन प्रतिशत से ऊपर हो गई जो संसार में उच्चतम दरों में एक है. सन् 2000 तक पाकिस्तान की जनसंख्या 13 करोड़ 130 के पार कर चुकी थी. अनुमान है कि इस दर से यह 2020 तक 25 करोड़ हो जायेगी. स्पष्टत: पाकिस्तान के समक्ष जीनवधारण क्षमता की प्रमुख समस्यायें होंगी जिनका समाधान शासन के वश में नहीं होगा.

1990 से पाकिस्तान ने उदारीकरण की प्रक्रिया आरंभ की, जिसकी प्रेरणा उसे स्पष्ट रूप से बाह्य स्रोतों से मिली. विश्व बैंक और अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष ने राजकोषीय घाटे को कम करने के लिए दबाव डाला. ऋण उपलब्ध कराने के लिए उन्होंने संरनात्मक समायोजन की शर्ते रखीं, जिसमें राज्य के स्वामित्व वाले उद्यमों का निजीकरण, संरक्षणात्मक तटकर को हटाना, सब्सिडी को खत्म करना, यथार्थवादी विनिमय दर का निर्धारण शामिल है. आधारभूत सेवाओं में निजी निवेश बढ़ाने के साथ-साथ उदारीकरण के अनुरूप नये नियामक उपाय भी अपनाये गये.

इस संरचनात्मक समायोजन की आलोचना भी स्पष्ट है. शायद पाकिस्तान में स्वदेशी रूप से उत्पन्न आर्थिक सुधार वहां के राष्ट्रीय व स्थानीय पर्यावरण की जटिलताओं  के परिप्रेक्ष्य में अधिक व्यवहारिक रूप से क्रियान्वित हो सकते थे. पार-राष्ट्रीय वैधता वाले, महानगरीय और ऋण दाता संचालित समाधान गहरे पैठी समस्याओं को संबोधित करने में असफल हुए हैं. यद्यपि अनेक अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में दुर्बल लोक नीति प्रदाता तन्त्रों के कारण नीतियों के क्रियान्वयन की प्रक्रिया कुप्रबंधन का शिकार हो जाती है.

सत्तर के दशक में स्थापित अनेक सार्वजनिक निगमों को नब्बे के दशक मे बेच दिया गया. दो छोटे राष्ट्रीयकृत बैंकों का निजीकरण कर दिया गया. आधारभूत संरचना के क्षेत्र में नियामक अभिकरणों की स्थापना हुई परन्तु उनकी प्रभावपूर्ण स्वायत्ता पर प्रश्न चिन्ह लगा रहा. निजीकरण की प्रक्रिया में अत्यधिक अनियमितताओं के आरोप भी लगे. नागरिक शासन के पतन के लिए उत्तरदायी भ्रष्टाचार के आरोपों में ये आरोप प्रमुख थे.

आयात उदारीकरण उद्योग क्षेत्र के समक्ष नई चुनौतियां भी प्रस्तुत करता है. संरक्षणात्मकता से प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक पर्यावरण में प्रवेश एक कष्टकारक प्रक्रिया होगी, जो विनिर्माण क्षेत्र को भयभीत करेगी. विश्व व्यापार संगठन के मसौदे के तहत, मुख्य प्रतिस्पर्धी भारत के साथ व्यापार का विस्तार आगे और चुनौती पेश करेगा.

तटकर घटाना भी एक चुनौती होगी. इन समायोजनों के प्रभाव और उनकी राजनीतिक स्वीकार्यता को विदेशी ऋण पर निर्भरता से संतुलित करना होगा. घाटे में पर्याप्त कटौती और राजस्व बढ़ाने के जुड़वां लक्ष्य भी भ्रमात्मक हैं. अभिजन समूह से धन का दोहन या जन समूह पर प्रतिगामी करारोपण और निर्वाह-आधारित सब्सिडी को समाप्त करने जैसे दोनों ही विकल्प राजनीतिक अस्थिरता को जन्म देंगे. इस दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण स्थिति में, नागरिक जनतंत्रवादियों पर अप्रत्याशित भ्रष्टाचार के आरोप राज्य की वैधता के प्रश्न को और गंभीर बनाते हैं. यद्यपि नवीन और नव प्रवर्तक उद्योगों के लिए उद्यमिता क्षमता संवृद्धि के त्वरित, उच्चतर निर्यात निष्पादन अथवा पर्याप्त विदेशी निवेश प्रवाह की संभावनायें हैं. पर 11 सितम्बर 2001 के बाद  की स्थिति से भू-राजनैतिक अनिश्चितताएं और ख़तरे भी बढ़े हैं.

जन सामान्य/जनसमूह की अपनी अक्षमता अब अभिजनों की प्रकट असफलताओं की पूरक बन गई है. राज्य और अभिजनों द्वारा वर्षों से सामाजिक क्षेत्र पर व्यय की उपेक्षा के कारण पाकिस्तान में मानव संसाधन तीव्र गति से उत्पादकता बढ़ाने में अक्षम प्रतीत होता है. अत्यधिक अपर्याप्त साक्षरता दर और शैक्षिक ढांचे के गुणात्मक क्षरण से एक ‘निम्नस्तरीय संतुलन’ व्याप्त हो गया है. असुरक्षित महसूस कर रहे अभिजनों द्वारा सामाजिक एवं संस्थागत परिवर्तनों के विशेष रूपों की प्राचीन सांस्कृतिक व धार्मिक विशेषताओं से समानता दर्शाने के कारण लिंग, जाति और नृजातीय अंतर्विरोधों का समाधान नहीं हो पाता. जनसंख्या नियोजन भी असफल रहा है. पाकिस्तान की जनता स्पष्ट रूप से पतनशील भविष्य के भय से ग्रसित है. उदारीकरण व बाजार अर्थव्यवस्था इस संकट के लिए रामबाण नहीं हो सकते, परन्तु पुरानी व्यवस्था भी जनता के लिए समान रूप से कष्टकारी थी.

(पुनर्लेखन : चन्द्रशेखर, ‘सेंटर फॉर द स्टडी ञफ सोसाइडी एण्ड पॉलिटिक्स’, कानपुर एवं शोधार्थी शोध-मण्डल)

प्रस्तुत लेख ‘एशियन जर्नल ऑफ मैनेजमेन्ट केसेज’ वाल्यूम 1(2), 2004 पृष्ठ 130-146 से साभार उद्धत. मूल लेख ‘हिस्टारिकल इम्पैक्ट ऑफ पोलिटिकल इकॉनोमी इन पाकिस्तान’ शीर्षक से प्रकाशित.

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