भारतीय लोकतांत्रिक चुनौती

आशुतोष वार्ष्णेय : एक स्थापित लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्था के अन्तर्गत आर्थिक उदारीकरण करने में भारतीय प्रयास का आधुनिक काल में कोई सानी नहीं है. बाज़ारवाद और लोकतान्त्रिक सिद्धान्तों में यद्यपि कोई मौलिक विरोधाभास नहीं, पर भारतीय संदर्भ में उनमें तनाव अवश्य है. राजनीतिक अर्थशास्त्र के छात्र जानते हैं कि अर्थव्यवस्था में सुधार की बाज़ारवादी नीतियां कुछ समय के लिये विरोध और विस्थापन को जन्म देती हैं. लोकतन्त्र में चुनावों के द्वारा कभी ऐसी नीतियों पर रोक या बदलाव की मुहर भी लगा दी जाती है. पश्चिम में तीन कारणों से ऐसा तनाव सीमित रहा: एक, औद्योगिक क्रान्ति के बाद ही वयस्क मताधिकार देने से गरीबों को वोट देने का अवसर तब मिला जब उन्हें कुछ सम्नपन्नता मिल चुकी थी; दो, लोक-कल्याणकारी राज्य ने गरीबों की जरूरतों को पूरा कर दिया था; और तीन, शिक्षित और अमीर लोगों ने मतदान में बढ़-चढ़कर हिस्सा लिया. भारत में इन तीनों पर स्थिति एकदम भिन्न रही. आज़ादी के साथ ही वयस्क मताधिकार मिल गया, लोक-कल्याणकारी राज्य केवल कल्पना में था, और अमीरों से ज्यादा लोकतान्त्रिक प्रक्रिया में गरीबों की सहभागिता रही.

भारतीय विकास के अनुभव पूर्व एशिया से भी भिन्न रहे हैं. दक्षिण कोरिया और ताइवान ने अपने आर्थिक विकास की शरुआत के लगभग दो दशक बाद (क्रमश: अस्सी और नब्बे के दशकों में) वयस्क मताधिकार प्राप्त किया. चीन और सिंगापुर तो अभी उदारवादी लोकतन्त्र हुए ही नहीं. चीन की तुलना में भारत में निजीकरण इसीलिये धीमी गति से हुआ क्योंकि भारत में उसके विरोध की आज़ादी है, पर चीन में नहीं. आर्थिक सुधारों के बाद भारत में सकारात्मक परिणाम आये है; आर्थिक विकास की गति, प्रत्यक्ष विदेशी पूंजी निवेश और निर्यात बढ़े; उत्पाद क्षेत्र में सेवा-क्षेत्र की तरह ही मज़बूती आई और सूचना प्रौद्योगिकी का तेजी से विकास हुआ.

लेकिन यह तेजी कब तक रहेगी ? यह बहुत कुछ हमारी लोकतान्त्रिक राजनीति पर निर्भर रहेगा जिसने आर्थिक विकास के बाद सम्पत्ति के पुनर्वितरण का सवाल उठाय है. इस सवाल को किस कुशलता से हमारे राजनीतिज्ञ हल करते हैं इस पर आर्थिक परिवर्तन से होने वाले परिणाम निर्भर करेंगे.

indian-democracy

द्वितीय विश्वयुद्ध के बाद के विकास सिद्धान्तों के अनुरूप भारत में केन्द्रीकृत नियोजित अर्थव्यवस्था लागू हुई जिसमें परमिट-कोटा आदि के द्वारा पूरी अर्थव्यवस्था को नियन्त्रित कर घरेलू उद्योगों को वाह्य प्रतियोगिता से बचाने की कोशिश की गई.

इसी के साथ सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र को भी खूब बढ़ावा दिया गया. ऐसे संरक्षणवादी माहौल में कांग्रेसी सरकार ने जुलाई 1991 से आर्थिक सुधारों की पहल की जिससे औद्योगिक प्रतिष्ठानों को बाजारू स्पर्धा में सफलता हेतु निर्णय लेने की स्वतन्त्रता मिले. इस क्रम को 1998 में सत्ता में आई भाजपा नेतृत्व में राजग सरकार ने भी आगे बढ़ाया.

इन सुधारों से कुछ क्षेत्रों में नाटकीय मोड़ आये हैं. निवेश क्षेत्र में सर्वाधिक सुधार हुआ है. औद्योगिक प्रतिष्ठान आज निवेश, मूल्य-निर्धारण तथा प्रौद्योगिकी के प्रयोग के सम्बन्ध में निर्णय लेने को स्वतन्त्र हैं. सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र में आरक्षित 18 क्षेत्रों के स्थान पर अब केवल 3 क्षेत्र (रेल परिवहन, युद्धक विमान व पोत तथा परमाणु ऊर्जा उत्पाद) ही रह गये हैं. विमान-परिवहन, बीमा क्षेत्र और खुदरा व्यापार क्षेत्र को छोड़ कर अन्य सभी क्षेत्रों में विदेशी पूंजी निवेश को काफी उदार बना दिया गया है जिससे अनेक क्षेत्रों में पूर्ण विदेशी स्वामित्व का मार्ग खुल गया है. जहां विदेशी कम्पनियां भारतीय औद्योगिक घरानों के शेयर खरीद-बेंच सकती हैं, वहीं भारतीय कम्पनियां भी विदेशों में अपनी अंश धारिता बेंच सकती हैं. आयात-निर्यात में काफी बदलाव आया है; आयात शुल्क 100 प्रतिशत से घटाकर 25 प्रतिशत कर दिया गया है.

लेकिन 5 क्षेत्रों – वित्तीय नीति, निजीकरण, लघु-उद्योग, कृषि और श्रम-कानूनों में प्रगति धीमी रही है. वित्तीय-घाटा ज्यादा है, क्योंकि उर्वरकों, खाद्यान्न व बिजली पर सब्सिडी ज्यादा है. सब्सिडी घटाने के प्रत्येक प्रयास का डटकर विरोध भी हुआ है. निजीकरण की शुरुआत 2001 में हुई भी, पर उसे श्रमिकों-संघों व राजनीतिक दलों का विरोध मिला. वैसे तो एक करोड़ पूंजी निवेश वाले उद्योगों को लघु उद्योग की श्रेणी में रखा गया है, पर 2001 से वस्त्र, खिलौनें, जूते तथा आटो –पार्ट्स को इससे निकाल दिया गया है. पर अभी अन्य सभी को अनारक्षित करने की कोई योजना नहीं है जिससे भारतीय कम्पनियों को चीन व अन्य विकासशील देशों से इस क्षेत्र में स्पर्धा करने का अवसर नहीं मिल पा रहा है, और श्रम कानूनों में कोई भी महत्वपूर्ण बदलाव नहीं दिखाई देता जिससे 100 मजदूरों/कर्मचारियों से ज्यादा वाले प्रतिष्ठानों को अपने कर्मचारियों को निकालने के लिये सरकारी अनुमति जरूरी होती है (जो शायद कभी नहीं मिलती).

भारत में आर्थिक सुधारों का लाभ किसे मिला? देश में 20-25 करोड़ मध्य वर्ग हैं तथा कुछ धनी लोग हैं. जिस प्रकार से देश में प्रतिमाह 60 लाख मोबाइल फोनधारकों की संख्या बढ़ रही है, शहरों में व्यापार बढ़ रहा है, पांच सितारा होटलों में जगह नहीं है, एयरपोर्ट्स खचाखच भरे हैं और उड़ाने भरी हुई हैं उससे आर्थिक विकास के संकेत मिलते हैं. लेकिन गरीबों व भिखारियों की संख्या में कोई महत्वपूर्ण कमी नहीं आई है, और अभी भी एक चौथाई जनसंख्या 40-45 रु. प्रतिदिन आय के आधार पर रह रही है. रोज़गार में भी कोई ख़ास सुधार नहीं हुआ है.

देश में जब असमानता पर बहस होती है तो दो मुद्दे ध्यान आकर्षित करते हैं- एक ग्रामीण व शहरी विकास में असमानता, औ दो, विभिन्न लोगों में आय का असमान वितरण. पिछले दशक में जहां आर्थिक विकास की वार्षिक दर 6 प्रतिशत रही वहीं कृषि में यह केवल 2.2 प्रतिशत वार्षिक रही.

आय के असमान वितरण पर आंकड़े उतने विश्वसनीय नहीं, पर सर्वेक्षणों से पता चलता है कि ज्यादा लोगों का यही मानना है कि आर्थिक सुधारों का लाभ अधिकतर अमीरों को ही मिला है जिसमें मध्यमवर्ग भी शामिल है. भारत में 2004 के नेशनल इलेक्श स्टडी के आंकड़े भी इसी की पुष्टि करते हैं. पर ये वास्तविकता से परे भी हो सकते हैं क्योंकि यह स्पष्ट नहीं कि जनता ने ‘सुधारों’ को कैसे समझा. नेशनल इलेक्शन स्टडी में आर्थिक सुधारों के बारे में एकतरफा सवाल पूछे गये जैसे – क्या सरकारी नौकरियों में कर्मचारियों की संख्या घटाई जाये ? क्या सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र का निजीकरण किया जाये ? लेकिन उसमें दूसरे पहलू को छूने वाले सवाल नहीं पूछे गये जैसे- क्या सस्ते दामों पर उपभोक्ता वस्तुएं उपलब्ध कराने के लिये आयात शुल्क घटा दिया जाए?  क्या बैकों और पोस्ट ऑफिसों की कार्यप्रणाली को नियन्त्रित करने वाले कानूनों को और सरल व पारदर्शी बनाया जाये? क्या बड़ी कम्पनियों को सरकारी संरक्षण मिलता रहे, अथवा नई और छोटी कम्पनियों को उनसे स्पर्धा करने का अवसर मिलना चाहिये? क्या सरकार को इस बारे में हस्तक्षेप करना चाहिये कि खाद्यान्न को कहां और किस मूल्य पर बेंचा जाये? क्या घाटे में चल रहे सरकारी प्रतिष्ठानों को निजी क्षेत्र को नहीं दे देना चाहिये यदि उससे हुई आय को सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य व शिक्षा में लगाया जाय? यह स्पष्ट नहीं कि आम जनता इन प्रश्नों के कैसे उत्तर देती. आंकड़े कुछ भी कहें, पर राजनीति में जनता की सोच ज्यादा महत्वपूर्ण  है. पूरे परिदृष्य में हमें दो भारत दिखाई देता है : एक वह जहां व्यापार बढ़ रहा है दूसरा वह जहां कृषि क्षेत्र संघर्ष कर रहा है, ग्रामवासी गरीब हैं तथा एक विशाल निम्न वर्ग है. इसीलिये, भारत सरकार जहां एक ओर अपनी नीतियों को आगे बढ़ाने के लिये कृतसंकल्प है वहीं वह लोकनीतियों के द्वारा इसका लाभ और लोगों तक पहुंचाना चाहती है.

भारतीय लोकतन्त्र में सुधार के समक्ष दो चुनौतियां हैं; एक सुधारों के बारे में जनता की सोच, और दूसरा आगामी गम्भीर सुधारों के लिये होने वाले तात्कालिक दिक्कतें. अभी जो सुधार हुये हैं उनसे न तो गरीबों का भला हुआ, न ही उनके रोज़गार के अवसर बढ़े. अत: उनका विरोध स्वाभाविक है. लेकिन अन्य सुधारों जैसे सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र का निजीकरण, रोजगार में ‘रखो और निकालो की नीति’ कृषि व लघु उद्योग में नीतिगत परिवर्तन आदि से यद्यपि लम्बे समय में गरीबों को लाभ अवश्य मिलेगा, लेकिन उसमें उन्हें तात्कालिक कठिनाइयों का सामना करना पड़ेगा. इसी डर से राजनीतिज्ञों के कदम ठिठक गये हैं.

अत: भारत में सुधार की राजनीति को दो नावों पर चलना पड़ रहा है : अभिजन राजनीति और जन-राजनीति भारत में अंग्रेजी भाषा जानने वाले, उच्च जाति और शहरी लोग हैं जिन्हें हम अभिजन कह सकते हैं. अभिजन-राजनीति उच्च सार्वजनिक क्षेत्रों में देखी जा सकती है जहां सरकार और उद्योग मिलते हैं, तथा जहां नई दिल्ली का विभिन्न विदेशी सरकारों और वित्तीय संस्थाओं से सम्पर्क होत है. सरकार के बाहर ये तबका अंग्रेजी अखबार, टेलीविजन और इन्टरनेट से जुड़ा रहता है. ऐसे लोगों के लिये इतना आकर्षक भविष्य कभी नहीं रहा.

लेकिन भारत में ‘जन-राजनीति’ तो दूसरी ही धुन पर नाच रही है. इसमें समाज के गरीब व निचले तबके के लोग आते हैं, तथा उनकी राजनीति  वोट डालने, सड़कों पर प्रदर्शन और दंगा करने तक सीमित है. वे सुधारों को धनिकों के हित साधन के रूप में देखते हैं और भारतीय लोकतन्त्र में उनके वोट की हैसियत है. संभवत: इसीलिये वे सुधार तो हो पा रहे हैं जो ‘अभिजनमुखी’ है, पर वे गम्भीर सुधार नहीं हो पा रहे हैं जो ‘जनोन्मुखी’ है. इसे हम जन-राजनीति की सीमाएं कह सकते हैं.

‘जन-राजनीति’ के क्षेत्र में कोई नीति प्रवेश कर पायेगी या नहीं, यह तीन बातों पर निर्भर करता है – प्रथम, कितने लोग उस नीति से प्रभावित हो रहे हैं; द्वितीय, वे लोग कितने संगठित हैं; तथा तृतीय, क्या उसका परिणाम प्रत्यक्ष व तत्काल दिखाई देगा, या अप्रत्यक्ष है और बाद में पता चलेगा. यदि ज्यादा लोग, संगठित लोग उस नीति से तत्काल प्रभावित होते हैं तो उनमें उस नीति को लेकर चिन्ता होना स्वाभाविक है. इसीलिये भारत जैसे देश में आर्थिक मुद्दे जैसे मुद्रा-स्फीति या औद्योगिक बन्दी ‘जन-राजनीति’ में चर्चा व चिन्ता का विषय बन जाते हैं जबकि शेयरों में उतार-चढ़ाव नहीं. एक से लाखों करोड़ों प्रभावित होते हैं, दूसरे से नहीं.

दूरगामी आर्थिक सुधारों से गरीब तबका सबसे ज्यादा प्रभावित होता है. राजनीतिज्ञ इसलिये राजनीतिक व चुनावी लाभ की दृष्टि से उनपर अपना समर्थन व्यक्त नहीं करते. वहीं ‘पहचान की राजनीति’ और साम्प्रदायिक मुद्दे चुनावी दृष्टिकोण से उन्हें लाभकारी लगते हैं. अत: अर्थशास्त्रियों के लिये जो प्राथमिकता है, वह राजनितिज्ञों के लिये गौण हो जाता है. आर्थिक सुधार धीरे-धीरे भारतीय चुनावी राजनीति के एजेण्डे पर आता जा रहा है. 1996 में किये गये सर्वे के अनुसार, जहां 75 प्रतिशत मतदाताओं को अयोध्या में मस्जिद ढहाये जाने का पता था, वहीं मात्र 19 प्रतिशत मतदाताओं को आर्थिक सुधारों का ज्ञान था जबकि आर्थिक सुधारों का कार्यक्रम उसके दो साल पहले से चल रहा था. 1996 व 1998 के संसदीय चुनावों में आर्थिक सुधार कोई मुद्दा नहीं था; 1999 के लोकसभा चुनावों में सुधार के हिमायती या तो हार गये, या उन्हें उस आधार पर चुनाव प्रचार अभियान नहीं चलाया. लेकिन नेशनल इलेक्शन स्टडी 2004 के अनुसार, इस चुनाव में 85 प्रतिशत मतदाताओं को सुधारों की जानकारी थी, और ज्यादातर की मान्यता थी कि उससे धनी लोगों को लाभ हुआ. फिर भी 2004 लोकसभा चुनावों में राजग  की हार का कारण आर्थिक मुद्दे नहीं थे, वरन् भाजपा के आन्ध्र प्रदेश व तमिलनाडु के घटकों का प्रदर्शन बहुत बुरा रहा और कांग्रेस के नेतृत्व वाली संप्रग की जीत हुई. यद्यपि सप्रंग को राजग से केवल 0.6 प्रतिशत वोट ज्यादा मिले, पर ‘फर्स्ट-पास्ट-द-पोस्ट’ संसदीय व्यवस्था के कारण उसे राजग से 33 सीटें ज्यादा मिलीं. (संप्रग 222, राजग 189).

लेकिन आगामी 2009 के लोकसभा चुनावों में आर्थिक सुधारों के प्रति विरोध एक प्रभावी मुद्दा हो सकता है. कांग्रेस के रणीतनिकारों को स्पष्ट हो चुका है कि उन्हें मध्य व निम्न वर्ग का लाभ देने वाले सुधारों पर ध्यान देने की जरूरत है. पर इसकी दो सबसे बड़ी पहलें – राष्ट्रीय ग्रामीण रोज़गार गारण्टी योजना तथा उच्च शिक्षा में आरक्षण – बाज़ारवाद के विरुद्ध जाती है. 2005 अगस्त में लागू प्रथम योजना के अनुसार प्रत्येक बेरोज़गार ग्रामीण परिवार के एक सदस्य को वर्ष में कम से कम 100 दिन का काम दिया जायेगा. अभी यह योजना 200 गावों में लागू है; आगामी दो वर्षों में यह पूरे देश में लागू हो जायेगी. दूसरे के अनुसार, अन्य पिछड़ी जातियों के लिये आई.आई.टी व आई आई एम. सहित सरकारी सहायता प्राप्त सभी शिक्षण संस्थाओं में 27 प्रतिशत स्थान आरक्षित किये जायेंगे.

कांग्रेस की वामपंथियों पर निर्भरता ही इन बाजार-विरोधई कदमों की वजह नहीं है, वरन् कांग्रेस अपने लिये एक नयी राजनीतिक ज़मीन भी ढ़ूढ़ने की कोशिश में है. चूंकि मध्य और निम्न वर्ग एक बड़ा तबका है और वह चुनावो में मत देने निकलता है, इसलिये इस बड़े वर्ग को रिझाना कांग्रेस की राजनीतिक रणनीति का हिस्सा हो सकता है. भाजपा को भी प्रभावी भूमिका केल लिये समाज के निचले तबके पर ध्यान देना होगा (और जिसकी शुरुआत वे कर चुके हैं), तथा उच्च वर्ग को अपनी राजनीतिक प्रभावशीलता बनाये रखने के लिये राजनीतिक सहभागिता बढ़ानी पड़ेगी. जब तक मध्य वर्ग बढ़ कर बहुमत में नहीं आता तब तक गरीब व निचले तबके के लोगों के प्रभाव में वे आर्थिक सुधार न हो पायेंगे जिससे सीधे-सीधे सामान्य-जन प्रभावित होते हैं.

पर भारतीय लोकतन्त्र की समस्याएं व चुनौतियां दूरगामी आर्थिक सुधारों के लिये बहुत ही लाभकारी होगी. 1991 से चार गठबन्धन सरकारें आ चुकी हैं, पर किसी ने भी सुधार का रास्ता छोड़ा नहीं. 20-25 करोड़ का मध्य वर्ग विदेशी निवेशकों को हमेशा लुभाता ही रहेगा तथा,  बावजूद जनोन्मुखी राजनीतिक दबाव के सुधार प्रक्रिया जारी रहेगी. पर इस दबाव का अर्थ यह जरूर है कि उन्हें अभिजनोन्मुखी और जनोन्मुखी दोनों प्रकार के आर्थिक सुधारों पर एक साथ ध्यान देना होगा.

प्रस्तुत लेख ‘फारेन एफेयर्स, मार्च-अप्रैल 2007, पृष्ठ 93-106 से साभार उद्धृत. मूल लेख ‘इंडियाज़ डिमोक्रेटिक चैलेन्ज’ शीर्षक से प्रकाशित.

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