भारत में आर्थिक विकास की राजनीति

अतुल कोहली : 

[खण्ड-एक : 1980 का दशक]

पिछले 25 वर्षों में भारत के आर्थिक विकास में औसतन 6 प्रतिशत वार्षिक की वृद्धि हुई. स्वतन्त्रतापूर्व अर्थव्यवस्था में विकास न होना, और स्वतन्त्रता के बाद भी मात्र 3-4 प्रतिशत की वार्षिक दर से विकास होना इस विकास दर के महत्व को दर्शाता है. विश्व में सर्वाधिक तेज विकसित होने वाली भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था ने यह विकास एक प्रजातान्त्रिक ढांचे में प्राप्त किया है. ऐसा कैसे हो सका ? अन्य देश इससे क्या सीख ले सकतेहैं ?

जहां भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था की बदली प्रकृति और बदलता अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय परिदृष्य इसके कारण हो सकते हैं, वहीं ‘राज्य की बदलती भूमिका’ भी एक महत्वपूर्ण कारक है. क्या भारतीय राज्य द्वारा नवउदारवादी नीतियों को अपनाने के कारण भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था में तेजी आई है; या राज्य द्वारा हस्तक्षेप के जटिल तरीकों को अपनाने से ऐसा हुआ है? बाज़ारवादी दृष्टिकोण के अनुसार 1991 से ही भारत द्वारा अपनाई गई आर्थिक उदारीकरण की नीतियों के कारण ऐस हुआ. इसमें घरेलू नियमों को उदार बनाने, आयात शुल्क घटाने, उचित विनिमय दर नीतियां बनाने तथा विदेशी निवेशकों को आमन्त्रित करने जैसे उपाय किये गये. लेकिन, इस दृष्टिकोण में कुछ कमजोर बिन्दु भी है. एक, नागराज, बिरमानी और सुब्रमणियम के अनुसार उदारीकरण के एक दशक पूर्व ही भारत में आर्थिक विकास तेज होने लगा था; क्यों ? दो, उदारीकरण के दौरान किये गये सुधारों से औद्योगिक उत्पादन में कोई तेजी नहीं आई, वरन् कुछ गिरावट ही हुई, क्यों ? तीन, क्यों उदारीकरण का प्रभाव सभी भारतीय राज्यों में एक समान नहीं दिखाई देता?

Indian Economy

भारत द्वारा वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था को सीमित ढंग से ही अपनाया गया है. अनेक विकासशील राज्यों के उदारीकरण के अनुभव मिश्रित रहे हैं. भारत के सन्दर्भ में दो बातें ध्यान रखना जरूरी है : प्रथम, 1980 के आसपास की मजबूत स्थिति, द्वितीय, बाज़ारवादी दृष्टिकोण के बजाय भारत में आर्थिक विकास की सफलता व असफलता में राज्य की भूमिका. मैं समझता हूं कि भारत में राज्य ने ‘बाज़ारवादी-नीति’ के स्थान पर ‘व्यापारवादी-नीति’ को अपनाया है जिसके अन्तर्गत 1980 से वामपंथ के प्रति झुकाव और पूंजीवाद-विरोध का परित्याग, आर्थिक विकास को प्रमुखता तथा भारतीय पूंजी को महत्व दिया गया. दक्षिण कोरिया और ब्राजील जैसे विकासशील देशों में भी औद्योगिक विकास इसीलिये तेज हुआ क्योंकि राज्य ने आर्थिक विकास के लक्ष्य को प्राप्त करने के लिये पूंजीपतियों के पक्ष में और मजदूरों के विरुद्ध जबर्दस्त हस्तक्षेप किया. 1950 से 1980 के मध्य विकास की गति इसलिये नहीं धीमी थी कि राज्य ने ‘बाज़ारवाद’ को स्वीकार नहीं किया, वरन इसलिये कि विकास के ‘राज्यवादी-मॉडल’ के अनुरूप राज्य का पर्याप्त हस्तक्षेप न था. 1980 के बाद विकास की गति में जो वृद्धि हुई उसका मूल कारण राज्य का ‘दक्षिणपंथ’ की ओर बढ़ता झुकाव था.

बाज़ारवाद बनाम् व्यापारवाद

विकास पर चर्चा करते समय सामान्यत: ‘बाज़ारवादी-सरकारों’ को ‘व्यापारवादी-सरकारों’ के समानार्थी के रूप में देखा जाता है. पर गहराई से देखें तो ‘विकास की राजनीति’ पर ये सरकारें अपनी नीतियों, उनके परिणामों के कारण व स्वरूप, तथा उनमें अन्तर्निहित राजनीति के सम्बन्ध में भिन्न नज़रिया रखती हैं.

‘बाज़ारवाद’ जहां नये उद्यमियों तथा ग्राहकों का समर्थन करता है, वहीं ‘व्यापारवाद’ स्थापित-उत्पादों का पक्षधर है. बाज़ारवाद संसाधनों के दक्ष आवंटन और प्रतिस्पर्धा से उत्पादन और विकास में वृद्धि की कल्पना करता है. इस परिकल्पना से 1980 व 1990 के दशकों में ‘वाशिंगटन-सहमति’ बनी. इसके द्वारा 1950 व 1960 के दशकों में विकास के लिए राज्य-हस्तक्षेप की आलोचना की गई, तथा यह सुझाव दिया गया कि यदि राज्य अपना आर्थिक हस्तक्षेप न्यूनतम कर दें और अपनी अर्थव्यवस्था को पूरे विश्व के लिए खोल दें तो उनका आर्थिक विकास बढ़ जायेगा. ऐसा न करने से उन्हें वित्तीय व व्यापार असन्तुलन का सामना करना पड़ेगा. अन्य सुझावों के अनुसार, राज्य को सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र का निजीकरण, सब्सिडी में कटौती, मूल्य निर्धारण में हस्तक्षेप, मुद्रा का अवमूल्यन तथा विदेशी पूंजी निवेशकों को आमन्त्रण देने जैसे कार्य करना चाहिये. उनका मानना था कि एक प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक, खुली और दक्ष अर्थव्यवस्था से अनेक सकारात्मक परिणाम आयेंगे. इससे बेहतर आर्थिक विकास दर, उच्च रोजगार अवसर, ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों की बेहतरी और क्षेत्रीय-असन्तुलन दूर करने जैसी उपलब्धियां हो सकेंगी. चूंकी बाज़ारवादी नीतियों को लागू करने में आर्थिक मन्दी व घरेलू राजनीतिक कठिनाइयां आ सकती हैं, अत: इस दृष्टिकोण के समर्थकों ने संक्रमणकाल में विकासशील देशों को ‘बाहरी समर्थन’ की पेशकश की.

जहां ‘बाज़ारवादी’ दृष्टिकोण ‘नवउदारवाद’ से प्रेरणा लेता है, वहीं ‘व्यापारवादी’ दृष्टिकोण कुछ पूर्वी एशियाई देशों की आर्थिक सफलता  से प्रेरणा लेता है. यह समझना जरूरी है कि आर्थिक वृद्धि राज्य के हस्तक्षेप की मात्रा पर नहीं, वरन् उसकी गुणवत्ता पर निर्भर है. इसके लिये राज्य व निजी क्षेत्र के समीकरण का बड़ा महत्व है. उनके उद्देश्य समान या परस्पर विरोधी हो सकते हैं. लेकिन जब राज्य की उच्च विकास दर के प्रति प्रतिबद्धता निजी क्षेत्र द्वारा अधिकतम लाभ कमाने की भावना से जुड़ जाती है, तब विकासशील देशों में बड़ी तेजी से औद्योगिक विकास होता है. इसमें दमन और लाभ का समन्वय कर सरकार राष्ट्र के नाम पर विकास प्राप्त करती है. पूर्वी एशिया के देशों जैसे दक्षिण कोरिया व ताइवान में ऐसा ही हुआ है.

इस ‘व्यापारवादी मॉडल’ में उच्च आर्थिक विकास के लिये राज्य आपूर्ति एवम् मांग दोनों ही आयामों को अपने हस्तक्षेप से नियन्त्रित करता है. यह हस्तक्षेप प्रत्यक्ष व परोक्ष दोनों ही प्रकार का हो सकता है. जैसे आपूर्ति के प्रति प्रत्यक्ष हस्तक्षेप के उदाहरण – पूंजी, श्रम, प्राविधि एवम् उद्यमियों की उपलब्धता सुनिश्चित कर तथा मुद्रास्फीति बढ़ा कर राज्य संसाधनों को निजी क्षेत्रों में हस्तान्तरित करने का प्रयास कर सकता है. अपनी दमनकारी नीतियों से राज्य सस्ते व अनुशासित मज़दूरों की उपलब्धता सुनिश्चित कर सकता है. अप्रत्यक्ष हस्तक्षेप के अन्तर्गत राज्य शोध में पूंजी निवेश कर प्रौद्योगिकी को बढ़ावा दे सकता है, या विदेशों से वार्ता कर प्रौद्योगिकी को बढ़ावा दे सकता है, या विदेशों से वार्ता कर प्रौद्योगिकी हस्तान्तरण का प्रयास कर सकता है. मांग के क्षेत्र में भी राज्य विस्तारवादी मौद्रिक एवम् वित्तीय नीतियां अपना कर तथा विनिमय दर के द्वारा घरेलू मांग को बढ़ा सकता है. और यदि घरेलू मांग ज्यादा न बढ़े तो निर्यात सुविधाएं बढ़ा कर राज्य घरेलू व विदेशी खपत को बढ़ा सकता है. अधिकतर विकासवादी राज्यों ने बाज़ारवादी नीतियों के स्थान पर व्यापारवादी नीति ही अपनाई.

भारतीय परिप्रेक्ष्य में क्या हुआ ? यहां बाज़ारवादी नीति अपनाई गई या व्यापारवादी ? 1950 से 1980 तक भारत के विकास का एक राज्यवादी, आयात-वैकल्पिक मॉडल रहा पर 1980 से आगे हमने पूर्वी एशियाई देशों के विकास मॉडल को आंशिक रूप से अपनाया. आंशिक इसलिये कि हम जापान या दक्षिण कोरिया की तरह दमनकारी नहीं हो सकते थे. हमने केवल आर्थिक विकास के प्रति अपनी प्राथमिकता तथा भारतीय पूंजी के प्रति अपने सकारात्मक दृष्टिकोण अपनाने में ही उनका अनुगमन किया है. अत:, मूलत एक ‘समाजवादी भारत’ व्यापारिक भारत (इंडिया – इनकारपोरेटेड) की ओर उन्मुख हुआ है जिसेस भारत की बढ़ती आर्थिक विकास दर को ‘व्यापारवादी-विकास मॉडल’ की आंशिक स्वीकृति के रूप में देखा जा सकता है.

1980 के दशक में आर्थिक विकास की राजनीति

देश में 1980 के आसपास से आर्थिक विकास में तेजी आई और वह परम्परागत ‘हिन्दू-विकास-दर’ (1950 से) का अवरोध तोड़ सकी. पर ऐसा हुआ कैसे ? वास्तव में ऐसा इसलिये हुआ क्योंकि निवेश की दर और उत्पादकता दोनों में वृद्धि हुई. निवेश की दर तो 1970 के उत्तरार्ध से ही बढ़ने लगी थी जो 1980 के आसपास काफी तेज हो गई. 1980 के दशक में सार्वजनिक व निजी दोनों क्षेत्रों में निवेश बढ़ा पर 1990 के दशक में केवल निजी निवेश में ही वृद्धि आई. उत्पादकता में भी इसी समय तेजी आई पर 1990 के दशक  में कुछ गिरावट भी दर्ज हुई. अत:, यह जानना जरूरी है कि किन राजनीतिक व नीतिगत परिस्थितियों से 1980 के आसपास पूंजी निवेश और उत्पादकता दोनों में वृद्धि हुई.

प्रथम कारण, भारत विकास के एक नये मॉडल की ओर उन्मुख हुआ. इंदिरा गांधी के समय से ही आर्थिक विकास हेतु ‘राज्य व व्यापार’ का गठबन्धन होना शुरू हो गया. इंदिरा गांधी की ‘गरीबी हटाओ’ की नीति के कारण इस गठबन्धन का संज्ञान न लिया जा सका. आपातकाल के बाद की इंदिरा गांधी में काफी बदलाव आ गया था; उन्होंने पुनर्वितरण से ज्यादा आर्थिक विकास पर बल दिया, बड़े उद्यमियों से गठबन्धन किया, मज़दूर विरोधी रवैया अपनाया, सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र के विकास पर विराम लगाया और योजना आयोग व आर्थिक नियोजन का महत्व घटाया. लोकतन्त्र की विवशताओं के कारण इस उजागर करना संभव न था, पर निश्चित ही उनका झुकाव वामपंथ से हटकर दक्षिणपंथ की ओर गया. इस झुकाव को पूंजीपतियों ने समझा और अर्थव्यवस्था में ज्यादा निवेश किया. जब 1980 में वे पुन: प्रधानमंत्री बनी तो उन्होंने स्पष्ट कर दिया कि उनकी पहली प्राथमिकता बेहतर उत्पादन और आर्थिक विकास है. इस परिवर्तन के पीछे यह मान्यता थी कि 1970 के दशक में विकास की गति धीमी रही, अत: उत्पादन बढ़ाना जरूरी है. सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र की दुर्दशा के कारण राज्य के उस दावे को खारिज कर दिया गया कि उसका अर्थव्यवस्था पर कोई नियन्त्रण है. अत: निजी क्षेत्र की ओर देखा जाना एक मजबूत संभावना बन कर उभरी. इंदिरा गांधी को इस बात का पता था कि 1980 तक ‘गरीबी हटाओ’ की हवा निकल चुकी थी, भूमि सुधारों में कठिनाई आ रही थी, समाजवाद निष्प्रभावी हो रहा था तथा विकास में अवरोध बन रहा था. इसके विपरीत, कृषि के क्षेत्र में राज्य द्वारा निजी उत्पादकों को समर्थन देने से 1960 के दशक में हरित-क्रान्ति हो गई थी. ऐसा महसूस किया जाने लगा कि बड़े उद्यमियों को भी राज्य का समर्थन देने से औद्योगिक विकास में तेजी आयेगी, मुद्रा स्फीति कम होगी जिससे अन्तत: गरीबों को ही लाभ पहुंचेगा.

विकास के इस नये मॉडल के तीन घटक थे : आर्थिक विकास राज्य का प्राथमिक लक्ष्य है- इस लक्ष्य को प्राप्त करने हेतु बड़े उद्यमियों को समर्थन देना और इसके लिये मज़दूरों पर लगाम लगाना था. इस मॉडल को लागू करने के लिये जहां एक ओर इंदिरा गांधी ने कई शक्तिशाली समितियों का गठन किया (एल. के. झा समिति – आर्थिक प्रशासन का पुनर्गठन; आबिद हुसैन समिति – व्यापार समीक्षा; एम. नरसिम्हन समिति – वित्तीय सुधार), वहीं दूसरी ओर ‘विकास की प्राथमिकता’ हेतु कई  नीतिगत फैसले भी किये. इन सभी में एक महत्वपूर्ण बात यह थी कि भारत में विकास की धीमी गति के कारणों (जैसे व्यापार को सरकरी समर्थन न होना, श्रमिक सक्रियता, सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र में दक्षता की कमी, और आधारभूत संरचनाओं में सरकारी निवेश की कमी आदि) पर उद्यमियों और सरकार की एक सी सोच थी. दोनों का ही मानना था कि ‘वाशिंगटन-सहमति’ के विपरीत भारत में एक ‘सक्रिय-राज्य’ की जरूरत है जो ज्यादा निवेश करे, श्रमिकों पर लगाम लगाये, और पूंजी को ज्यादा समर्थन दे.

इंदिरा गांधी ने कई महत्वपूर्ण नीतिगत फैसले भी लिये. प्रथम, बड़े उद्यमियों पर नियन्त्रण में कमी कर उन्हें उन क्षेत्रों में प्रवेश दिया जो अभी तक सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र के लिये उपलब्ध थे. लाइसेंस में उदारता बरत कर उन्हें रसायन, औषधि, सीमेन्ट, ऊर्जा आदि क्षेत्रों में प्रवेश दिया. द्वितीय, उद्यमियों को विस्तार करने हेतु वांछित पूंजी के लिये न केवल बैंकों से उदार शर्तों पर ऋण की व्यवस्था की, वरन करों में राहत देना तथा कानूनों में परिवर्तन करके निजी क्षेत्र को सीधे जनता से संसाधन जुटाने की छूट भी दी. तृतीय, सरकारी उद्बोधनों में इंदिरा ने हड़ताल, घेराव, धीमी गति से काम करने तथा ‘नियमानुसार काम करने’ आदि का परित्याग कर श्रमिकों को उद्यमियों से सहयोग करने की अपील की. स्वयं सरकार ने अप्रत्यक्ष करों (एक्साइज़ व कस्टम) में वृद्धि कर तथा घरेलू व विदेशी स्रोतों से पूंजी जुटा कर सार्वजनिक निवेश को बढ़ाये रखा जिससे विकास में तेजी आई. इससे बजट पर वित्तीय दबाव जरूर बढ़ा, पर सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र में खर्च में कमी करके उत्पाद-कर तथा उन्हें मूल्य वृद्धि की इज़ाजत देकर सरकार ने उस दबाव से निज़ात पाने की कोशिश की. इसी क्रम में सब्सिडी में कटौती की गई तथा ‘काम के बदले अनाज योजना’ खत्म की गई.

इंदिरा गांधी के काल में बजट घाटा व सार्वजनिक ऋण का आकार तो बढ़ा पर राजीव-काल की तुलना में वह काफी कम था. 1981 में तेल की कीमतों में भारी वृद्धि तथा मशीनरी व प्रौद्योगिकी के आयात पर होने वाले खर्चे के लिये भारत ने अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष से 5 अरब डालर का ऋण लिया और उन्हें इस बात के लिये सन्तुष्ट कर दिया कि भारत के निजी क्षेत्रों के माध्यम से आर्थिक विकास को तेज करने के लिये सरकार को ज्यादा निवेश करने की जरूरत है.

उसी समय भारत ने विदेशी सामान व विदेशई निवेशकों के लिये अपने दरवाज़े खोल दिये. परिणामस्वरूप, सस्ते विदेशी सामान भारतीय बाज़ार में छाने लगे. इससे घबराकर भारतीय उद्यमियों ने सरकार से संरक्षण की गुहार लगाई. सरकार ने 1983-84 में पुन: आयात प्रतिबन्ध लगाये, और अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष के ऋण का पूरा प्रयोग किये बिना ही उस करार को समाप्त कर दिया. यह सब भारतीय उद्यमियों व व्यापारियों को स्थापित करने की रणनीति थी, न कि बाज़ारवादी नीति. यही नीति राजीव गांधी के समय व 1991 के बाद भी बनी रही.

राजीव गांधी के कार्यकाल में ‘आर्थिक राजनीति’ के तीन बिन्दुओं की ओर इंगित करना महत्वपूर्ण है. प्रथम, राजीव ने परम्परा से हटकर, समाजवाद का दिखावा बन्द कर सीधे-सीधे एक नये ‘उदारवाद’ की ओर बढ़ने का स्पष्ट संकेत दिया. उनके सलाहकार (एल. के. झा, मनमोहन सिंह, माण्टेक सिंह आहलूवालिया और आबिद हुसैन) वही थे जो इंदिरा काल में थे. इन सभी के दिमाग में वे आर्थिक सुधार भरे थे जो एक बदले राजनीतिक परिदृष्य में प्रकट हो गये. द्वितीय, सरकार की प्रथम प्रतिबद्धता ‘आर्थिक विकास’ की थी न कि ‘खुलेपन’ या ‘यद्-भाव्यम्’ के किसी सिद्धान्त के प्रति. इसीलिये सार्वजनिक निवेश में कोई कमी नहीं की गई, तथा प्रत्यक्ष करों को घटाकर उपभोक्ताओं को घरेलू सामान खरीदने का प्रोत्साहन दिया गया. तृतीय, पूरी नीति का उद्देश्य बड़े भारतीय उद्यमियों, व्यापारियों व निवेशकों के हित संरक्षण का था. इस सम्पूर्ण नवीन विकास मॉडल का सहारा लेकर निजी क्षेत्र ने राज्य के सहयोग से आर्थिक विकास के नये आयाम प्राप्त किये. इससे न केवल टाटा व बिड़ला जैसे स्थापित बड़े उद्यमियों को लाभ हुआ, वरन राजनीतिक रूप से प्रभावशाली रिलायन्स जैसे नये उद्यमियों को भी पनपने का मौका मिला.

यह तो समझ में आता है कि सरकार की ‘आर्थिक विकास की प्राथमिकता’ व उसके निजी क्षेत्र को भरपूर समर्थन से फर्क पड़ा, पर यह स्पष्ट नहीं कि उत्पादकता व दक्षता में भी क्यों सुधार हुआ ? शायद प्रौद्योगिकी, प्रबन्धन, उत्पादक-नेटवर्क तथा बड़े टैक्स आधार व कर्मिकों की प्रचुर उपलब्धता इसके लिये जिम्मेदार रही हो. घरेलू प्रतियोगिता में वृद्धि भी इसका कारण हो सकती है. कुल मिलाकर कह सकते हैं कि सरकारी नीतियों में बदलाव और निजी क्षेत्र की मजबूती व सक्रियता से न केवल पूंजी निवेश को बढ़ावा मिला, वनर् अर्थव्यवस्था में भी दक्षता आई. पर इससे कुछ समस्याएं भी आयीं. इन समस्याओं को दो भागों में बांट सकते हैं. – राजनीतिक और आर्थिक – राजनीतिक. राजनीतिक समस्या यह आई कि कांग्रेस व्यापारवादी नीतियों के चलते समाज के गरीब तबकों का समर्थन कैसे हासिल करे? आर्थिक-राजनीतिक समस्या यह थी कि अपने लोकतान्त्रिक-स्वरूप के कारण भारतीय राज्य पूर्वी-एशियाई देशों की भांति दमनकारी होकर पूरी तौर से उद्यमियों का हितैषी नहीं हो सकता था. वह न तो ज्यादा टैक्स ले सकता था और न ही सार्वजनिक खर्च में कोई गंभीर कटौती कर सकता था.

[खण्ड – 2 : 1990 के आगे]

1980 के दशक की आर्थिक राजनीति समझने के बाद दूसरी पहेली तब प्रकट होती है जब हम 1980 और 1990 के दशकों में औद्योगिक व उत्पादन क्षेत्रों की तुलना करते हैं. 1990 के दशक में आर्थिक सुधारों के हो-हल्ला के बावजूद उत्पादन क्षेत्र में कोई महत्वपूर्ण परिवर्तन नहीं हुआ है. वास्तविक परिवर्तन 1980 के आसपास ही दिखाई दिया. आर्थिक विकास के आंकड़ों को रोज़गार के आंकड़ों से मिलाकर देखने पर यह और भी साफ हो जाता है; 1980 व 1990 के दशकों में उत्पादन क्षेत्र में रोज़गार 12 प्रतिशत की दर पर ही रहा. अत: आर्थिक सुधारों से विकास और रोज़गार को न तो लाभ हुआ, न हानि. ऐसा क्यों ? दूसरी पहेली यह है कि आर्थिक सुधारों के बावजूद निवेश में क्यों स्थायित्व रहा (उसके स्वरूप में अवश्य परिवर्तन हुआ : 1990 के दशक में सार्वजनिक निवेश में आई कमी को निजी क्षेत्र ने पूरा किया). अत: हमारे सामने दो महत्वपूर्ण प्रश्न हैं : क्यों हम आर्थिक सुधारों की ओर अग्रसर हुये और ये सुधार कैसे विकसित हुये हैं ? तथा, सुधारों का समग्र आर्थिक विकास पर तथा मुख्यत: औद्योगिक विकास पर प्रभाव क्यों नगण्य रहा है ?

1991 से जो आर्थिक सुधार किये गये उसने भारत की औद्योगिक नीति और बाह्य आर्थिक-सम्बन्धों को प्रभावित किया है. औद्योगिक नीति के सुधारों को 1980 के दशक से चली आ रही सुधारों की कड़ी का एक हिस्सा ही माना जाना चाहिये. इस नीति ने नये और पुराने देशी औद्योगिक घरानों की मदद की है. लेकिन विदेश व्यापार, विदेशी निवेश और वित्तीय-सम्बन्धों के क्षेत्र में हमारी नीति में परिवर्तन दिखाई देता है. 1991 से आयात कोटा समाप्त होने लगा (2001 तक पूर्णत: समाप्त), आयात शुल्क घटने लगा, मुद्रा का अवमूल्यन हुआ, विदेशी निवेश को उदार बनाया गया और विदेशी वित्तीय लेन-देन पर प्रतिबन्ध कम किये गये. इनमें से कुछ ने भारतीय उद्यमियों को लाभ पहुंचाया पर कुछ ने उन्हें कठोर प्रतिस्पर्धा में ढकेल दिया. ऐसा करने में भारतीय राज्य एक बदले परिवेश में, भारतीय-व्यापार से एक नया समझौता कर रहा था. राज्य व्यापारियों की पूरी मदद करेगा, पर व्यापारियों को प्रतिस्पर्धा करनी ही होगी.

यद्यपि भारतीय दृष्टिकोण से ये सुधार क्रांतिकारी थे, पर वैश्विक दृष्टि से इन्हें साधारण ही कहा जा सकता है. सबसे पहले सुधारों की राजनीति पर गौर करते हैं. जो सुधार 1980 के दशक में संभव न थे वे 1990 के दशक में कैसे संभव हो गये ? सतही तौर पर 1991 के आर्थिक संकट को इसका कारण बताया जा सकता है, पर गहराई से देखने पर पता चलता है कि उस संकट ने आर्थिक सुधारों के लिये केवल उचित अवसर प्रदान किया. अनेक विद्वानों ने संरचनात्मक कारकों को राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया से अलग कर यह देखने का प्रयास किया कि भारतीय व्यापारियों/उद्यमियों को किस प्रकार देश में और देश के बाहर हो रहे संरचनात्मक परिवर्तनों ने प्रभावित किया. 1990 के दशक में ये सुधार इसलिये हो सके क्योंकि भारत के बाहर हो रहे परिवर्तनों में तेजी आई, तथा देश में पूंजीपतियों का एक वर्ग ‘खुली-अर्थव्यवस्था’ की चुनौती लेने को तैयार हो गया.

सबसे पहले सोवियत संघ का विघटन ही लें. सोवियत संघ भारतीय माल के बदले भारत को तेल, शस्त्र व प्रतिरक्षा सामग्री देता था, और इस विनिमय में हमें मुद्रा नहीं खर्च करनी पड़ती थी. लेकिन जब रूस को हमारा निर्यात घट गया तब हमें सेना की जरूरतों और उसके उन्नयन के लिये ‘विदेशी मुद्रा’ की जरूरत पड़ी. अत: निर्यात बढ़ाना और विदेशी मुद्रा कमाना हमारे ‘प्रतिरक्षा’ के लिये अपरिहार्य हो गया. इतना ही नहीं, सोवियत संघ के विघटन से हमने एक महत्वपूर्ण राजनीतिक व सामरिक मित्र खो दिया जिससे अमेरिका से सम्बन्ध बनाना जरूरी हो गया. विकासशील देशों को पता है कि अमेरिका से राजनीतिक सम्बन्ध बनाने का मतलब होता है कि उनसे आर्थिक-सम्बन्ध भी बनाया जाय, और अपनी अर्थव्यवस्था को उनके माल और पूंजी के लिये खोल दिया जाए.

दूसरा परिवर्तन शेयर बाजार में विदेशी निवेशकों की बढ़ती रुचि थी. इससे विदेशी मुद्रा की आवक बढ़ी जो भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था में कभी गम्भीर चिन्ता का विषय था और अन्तत:, भारतीय नेतृत्व को पता था कि ‘विश्व-व्यापार-संगठन’ की स्थापना होने जा रही है जो आयात कोटा की समाप्ति और आयात-शुल्क में कटौती का प्रयास करेगा, और, कि भारत उस संगठन का सदस्य होगा (विश्व व्यापार संगठन की स्थापना वास्तव में 1994 में हो गई). इसी के साथ-साथ, 1980 के दशक में भारतीय व्यापार में उत्पादकता की वृद्धि ने भारतीय उद्मियों को 1990 में विदेशी-प्रतिस्पर्धा के लिये तैयार कर दिया. इसी के अनुरूप फेडरेशन ऑफ चैम्बर्स ऑफ कॉमर्स एण्ड इंडस्ट्रीज (फिक्की) और एसोसिएटेड चैम्बर्स ऑफ कामर्स एण्ड इण्डस्ट्री (एसोचैम) का पुनर्गठन हुआ, तथा एक नई संस्था कन्फेडरेशन ऑफ इण्डस्ट्री (सीआईआई) का गठन हुआ. सीआईआई वास्तव में आधुनिक भारतीय उद्योगों का प्रतिनिधित्व करने लगी और सरकार से गहरा तालमेल बनाकर चलने लगी. 2004 तक माण्टेक सिंह आहलूवालिया ने सार्वजनिक व निजी क्षेत्र को उसके लिये आमन्त्रित किया. इस प्रकार, परिवर्तित वैश्विक परिदृष्य और भारतीय पूंजीपतियों के एक वर्ग द्वारा खुली अर्थव्यवस्था का समर्थन उस संरचनात्मक परिदृष्य  को इंगित करता है जिसमें भारतीय नीति निर्माताओं को 1990 के दशक में महत्वपूर्ण नीतिगत परिवर्तन का मौका मिला.

संरचनात्मक परिवर्तनों के अलावा, आर्थिक उदारीकरण की राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया भी शक्ति-परिवर्तन के विन्यास को इंगित करती है. इसमें राजनीतिक और आर्थिक अभिजन एक दूसरे की मदद कर रहे थे. पर इन राजनीतिक अभिजनों का आधार संकीर्ण था. उस समय 1990 में एक कामचलाऊ सरकार थी. जब कांग्रेस की सरकार बनी और उसमें तत्कालीन वित्तमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने नई आर्थिक नीति की घोषणा की तो उसे समर्थन देने के लिये केवल एक सीमित राजनीतिक नेतृत्व, प्रौद्योगिकी –नीति के कुछ अभिजन, भारतीय पूंजीपतियों का एक वर्ग तथा वाह्य विदेशी तत्व थे. एक लोकतन्त्र होने के बावजूद भारत में आर्थिक सुधार एक सीमित जनाधार पर आधारित था. जब कोई नई पहल होती तो उसे चोरी-छुपे और संसदीय वाद-विवादों से दूर रख कर दिया जाता रहा. भारत में निजी क्षेत्र ने इस ‘अप्रत्याशित स्वतन्त्रता’ को सराहा, और स्टाक मार्केट में तेजी से उछाल आया.

आर्थिक सुधारों का एक दूसरा महत्वपूर्ण आयाम था – ‘बजट घाटे में कमीं’ जिससे सरकार को अपना व्यय घटाना पड़ा. लेकिन कुछ समय में ही इसका विरोध होने लगा. सब्सिडी में कटौती का किसान और निर्यातक विरोध करने लगे, सामाजिक पूंजी निवेश घटाने से आर्थिक मन्दी आने लगी. इससे सरकार ने इन सभी प्रवृत्तियों पर कुछ विराम लगाया.

आर्थिक सुधारों का तीसरा महत्वपूर्ण आयाम भारतीय और वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था में तादाम्य स्थापित करना था. 1990 के दशक की शुरुआत में जहां आयात कोटा हटाया गया, आयात शुल्क घटाया गया विदेशी पूंजी निवेश को उदार बनाया गया, वहीं भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था को खोलने के लिये वांछित राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया की गति धीमी रही. उस समय की प्रमुख विरोधी पार्टी भारतीय जनता पार्टी (भाजपा) ने स्वदेशी को आधार बनाकर राष्ट्रवाद की भावना को बल प्रदान किया. इस प्रकार, राजनीतिक उठा-पटक ने आर्थिक सुधारों की गति को भी प्रभावित किया. दो अन्य सुधारों- सार्वजनिक उपक्रमों का निजीकरण और श्रम सम्बन्धी सुधार – पर विचार होता रहा है, पर राजनीतिक विरोध की संभावना  से उस पर कोई ठोस पहल न हो सकी. इस प्रकार, हमें एक पैटर्न दिखाई देता है : वे आर्थिक सुधार हो सके जिन्हें भारतीय उद्यमियों का समर्थन था, पर वे सुधार न हो सके जहां राज्य की दृढ़ शक्ति की पहल जरूरी थी (जैसे सार्वजनिक उपक्रमों का निजीकरण और श्रम सम्बन्धी सुधार). यह लोकतान्त्रिक भारत में राज्य शक्ति के विभाजित स्वरूप को इंगित करता है. फिर भी राज्य द्वारा बजट घाटे व सार्वजनिक व्यय को बनाये रखने के कारण भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था में राज्य के हस्तक्षेप का स्वरूप अत्यन्त जटिल हो जाता है. कहीं राज्य व्यापारियों के पक्ष में खड़ा दिखाई देता है तो कहीं लोकतान्त्रिक दबावों को महत्व देता दिखाई देता है.

स्वयं माण्टेक सिंह आहलूवालिया ने 2002 में औद्योगिक विकास तथा औद्योगिक निर्यात पर असन्तोष व्यक्त किया. यह सत्य है कि 6 प्रतिशत वार्षिक विकास दर से भारत अभी भी सबसे तेज विकसित होने वाले देशों में एक है, उसके निर्यात में वृद्धि हुयी ह, और भुगतान सन्तुलन में सुधार हुआ, फिर भी 1990 के दशक में औद्योगिक विकास 1980 के दशक के मुकाबले नहीं सुधरा और निर्यात की तुलना में आयात बढ़ा. ऐसा लगता है कि जैसे या तो आर्थिक सुधारों का कोई ज्यादा प्रभाव न हुआ, अथवा कि उनका बहुत जल्दी और दूरगामी प्रभाव हो गया है. अनेक उदाहरण इस बात को प्रमाणित करते हैं कि अर्थव्यवस्था में उन्नयन आर्थिक सुधारों के कारण नहीं, वरन् राज्य के व्यापारोन्मुखी दृष्टिकोण के कारण हुआ है.

1990 के दशक में आर्थिक विकास की जिम्मेदारी पूरी तौर से निजी क्षेत्र को जाती है. लेकिन ताज्जुब है कि औद्योगिक अर्थव्यवस्था की उत्पादकता विकास दर में 1980 के दशक की तुलना में कोई वृद्धि नहीं हुई. यद्यपि भारत में राज्य ने निजी क्षेत्र के नेतृत्व में आर्थिक विकास को समर्थन दिया, पर ताइवान या दक्षिण कोरिया की तरह न था. न तो राज्य ने निजी क्षेत्र को वांछित समर्थन दिया, न ही उसने गरीबों की पुरजोर मदद की. इसके लिये अनेक कारण हैं एक, आधारभूत संरचनाओं के अभाव से निजी क्षेत्रों को ज्यादा खर्च करना पड़ता है; दो, राज्य श्रमिकों के प्रति दक्षिण कोरिया की तरह दमनकारी होना नहीं चाहता; तीन, राज्य ने देशी प्रौद्योगिकी को आयातित किया; चार, भारत में मानवीय पूंजी को सुधारने का प्रयास न्यूनतम रहा है; पांच, निजी क्षेत्र द्वारा निर्यात को पर्याप्त प्रोत्साहन नहीं दिया गया.

राज्यों में आर्थिक विकास की राजनीति

इस दौर की तीसरी पहेली यह है कि विभिन्न भारतीय राज्यों के आर्थिक विकास में अन्तर क्यों है ? महत्वपूर्ण यह है कि राज्यों में आर्थिक विकास दर में 1980 की बजाय 1990 के दशक  में भिन्नता आने लगी. पर क्यों ? गुजरात, केरल और पश्चिम बंगाल में आर्थिक विकास में वृद्धि हुई, पर बिहार, उत्तर प्रदेश, उड़ीसा, पंजाब व राजस्थान में एक प्रतिशत की गिरावट दर्ज हुई. क्यों ? वैसे तो राज्य स्तर पर आंकड़े उपलब्ध नहीं, लेकिन इतना अवश्य कहा जा सकता है कि निवेश और उत्पादकता में भिन्नता इसके प्रमुख कारण हो सकते हैं. निवेश के मामले में कहा जा सकता है कि जिस प्रकार सार्वजनिक निवेश में राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कमी आई उसी प्रकार इसमें राज्य स्तर पर भी कमी आई. जो राज्य निजी पूंजी निवेशकों को आकर्षित करने में सफल रहे, वहां विकास हुआ, और जो राज्य ऐसा न कर सके वे पिछड़ गये. ये वही राज्य थे जो गरीब हैं, पर पंजाब का इसमें शामिल होना कृषि क्षेत्र में आई गिरावट से सम्बन्धित है, क्योंकि वहां की औद्योगिक विकास दर 6 प्रतिशत पर बनी हुई है.

राज्यों की प्राथमिक दशा जहां पूंजी निवेश के लिये महत्वपूर्ण है, वहीं यह नहीं भूलना चाहिये कि यह ‘प्राथमिक दशा’ स्वयं पिछली सरकारों की विकास नीतियों का परिणाम हैं. फिर प्राथमिक दशाओं में अन्तर ही महत्वपूर्ण नहीं है, राज्य प्रशासन की गुणवत्ता भी एक महत्वपर्ण कारक है. क्यों गुजरात अन्य समान सम्पन्न राज्यों की तुलना में अधिक विकसित हुआ, और क्यों बिहार अन्य गरीब राज्यों (जैसे मध्य प्रदेश) की अपेक्षा और नीचे चला गया ? और ऐसा क्या हैं कि केरल व पश्चिम बंगाल जैसे मध्य आय वाले राज्यों में तेजी से विकास हुआ जबकि ये दोनों राज्य निजी निवेशकों के लिये बहुत आकर्षक क्षेत्र नहीं हो सकते (वामपंथी रुझान के कारण). अत: राज्य स्तर पर और शोध की जरूरत है. संक्षेप में, 1991 के दशक में आर्थिक सुधारों ने कुछ राज्यों को ही लाभ पहुंचाया है.

प्रस्तुत लेख ‘इकोनॉमिक एण्ड पोलिटिकल वीकली, 1 अप्रैल, 2006 पृष्ठ 1251-1259 और 8 अप्रैल, 2006 पृष्ठ 1361-1369 से साभार उदधृत. मूल लेख ‘पॉलिटिक्स ऑफ इकोनॉमिक ग्रोथ इन इण्डिया. (1980-2005)’ शीर्षक से प्रकाशित.

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