शियाओं का उदय

वली नसर :  इराकी युद्ध एवं सद्दाम के पदन(2003) के बाद मध्यपूर्व की स्थितियों में जो परिवर्तन दिखाई देते हैं वे उस प्रकार के नहीं हैं जिनकी कामना अमेरिकी प्रशासन की सोच थी कि परिवर्तित शासन इराक में एवं शेष क्षेत्र में प्रजातन्त्र का वाहक बनेगा. बुश प्रशासन राजनीति को व्यक्तियों एवं राज्य के मध्य सम्बन्धों के रूप में चित्रित करता है किन्तु मध्यपूर्व में राजनीति को न केवल राज्य व व्यक्तियों वरन् देश के मुख्य सम्प्रदायों के मध्य शक्ति सन्तुलन के रूप में प्रस्तुत किया जाता है. सद्दाम के पतन को इराकी किसी उदारवादी – प्रजातन्त्र के सृजन के अवसर के रूप में नहीं अपितु देश के प्रमुख सम्प्रदायों के मध्य शक्ति के न्यायिक विभाजन के अवसर के रूप में देखते हैं. इराकी शिया बहुमत को उदार एवं शक्तिशाली बनाने के बुश प्रशासन के प्रयास मध्यपूर्व एवं इराक में साम्प्रदायिक सन्तुलन में अवश्य ही हलचल उत्पन्न करेंगे. ईरान की शिया सम्प्रदाय की 14 करोड़ जनसंख्या में से लगभग 90% जनता फारस की खाड़ी तथा उसकी लगभग 50% जनता लेबनान से पाकिस्तान तक निवास करती है. शिया जन जो वर्षों से शक्ति के हाशिये पर थे, अब अत्यधिक अधिकारों एवं अधिक राजनीतिक प्रभावों की मांग कर रहे हैं. 2005 के सऊदी स्थानीय निकायों के चुनावों में मतदाताओं की सहभागिता अन्य क्षेत्रों से दोगुनी थी.

इराक की स्वतन्त्रता ने मध्यपूर्व में शिया सम्प्रदायों के मध्य नवीन सांस्कृतिक, आर्थिक एवं राजनीतिक गठजोड़ों को जन्म दिया है. सन् 2003 से, लेबनान से लेकर पाकिस्तान तक हज़ारों तीर्थयात्रियों के नजफ तथा इराक के अन्य पवित्र शियायी स्थानों पर भ्रमण ने इराक को अन्य शिया क्षेत्रों मुख्यत: ईरान से जोड़ा.

Shia

इराकी शियाओं के शक्ति संवर्द्धन ने मध्यपूर्व के क्षेत्र में शियाओं में नवीन आशा जाग्रत की है जो सुन्नी क्षेत्रों के लिए गंभीर चिन्ता का विषय है. सुन्नी सम्प्रदाय के क्रोध की लहर इराक की सीमाओं से परे यथा-सीरिया से पाकिस्तान तक प्रसारित होनी प्रारम्भ हो गयी है जो क्षेत्र में दो सम्प्रदायों के मध्य शक्ति-संघर्ष में वृद्धि कर क्षेत्रीय अस्थायित्व को जन्म दे सकती है. यह शक्ति-सन्तुलन मध्य-पूर्व की राजनीति के साथ-साथ अमेरिका के साथ क्षेत्र के सम्बन्धों को अवश्य ही पुनर्परिभाषित करेगा. शियाओं का उदय वाशिंगटन के लिए मध्यपूर्व में अपने हितों के सम्पादन एवं संवर्द्धन हेतु नवीन अवसर प्रस्तुत करता है, विशेष रूप से ईरान में जो विश्व का सर्वाधिक शिया जनसंख्या वाला राज्य है.

सन् 2003 से ईरान ने अधिकारिक रूप से इराक में एक सृजनकारी भूमिका का निर्वाह किया है. यह प्रथम देश था जिसने इराकी शासकीय परिषद के साथ वार्ता हेतु आधिकारिक दल को बगदाद भेजा. ईरान ने वित्तीय सहायता को विस्तृत किया तथा इराक की ऊर्जा एवं विद्युत संरचना के पुनर्निर्माण के लिए सहायता का प्रस्ताव प्रस्तुत किया.

इराक में ईरान का गैर-अधिकारिक प्रभाव कदाचित् अधिक महत्वपूर्ण है. पिछले तीन वर्षों में ईरान ने गुप्तचर व्यवस्था, सशस्त्र सेनाओं से लेकर विभिन्न शिया दलों में राजनीतिज्ञों के विशाल एवं प्रभावशाली संजाल तथा गठबन्धन निर्मित किये हैं. इन गठबन्धनों की अतिशयता ने अमेरिका को अप्रसन्न कर दिया तथा उसका कहना है कि ईरान इराक में विद्रोहों एवं आपराधिक संगठनों को बढ़ावा दे रहा है. साथ ही अमेरिका ने तेहरान पर इराकी जनमत को अमेरिका विरोधी बनाने का आरोप लगाया है. किन्तु वाशिंगटन इराक में ईरानी प्रभाव को देखने में असमर्थ रहा क्योंकि 1980 में दोनों देशों के मध्य युद्ध ने अमेरिका को यह सोचने के लिए विवश किया कि युद्ध दोनों देशों के सम्बन्धों को समाप्त कर देगा. वास्तविकता तो यह है कि इराक का शिया सम्प्रदाय बगदाद में तेहरान के प्रभाव से अधिक सम्प्रदाय के प्रभाव से चिन्तित होता है.

सैन्य एवं राजनीतिक गठबन्धनों के अतिरिक्त ईरान व इराक के मध्य अनेक ऐसे सम्बन्ध हैं जो शिया सम्प्रदाय के लोगों के देशान्तरण के फलस्वरूप उदित हुये हैं. 1970 के दशक के प्रारम्भिक वर्षों में सद्दाम हुसैन की ‘अरबीकरण’ की नीति ने ईरानी मूल के हज़ारों इराकी शियाओं को दुबई, कुवैत, लेबनान, सीरिया एवं ईरान में मुख्य पद प्राप्त किये जिनमें एक है अयातुल्लाह मोहम्मद अली तस्ख़ीरी जो ख़ामेनी के मुख्य सलाहकार हैं तथा ईरान की इराक सम्बन्धी नीतियों में शक्तिशाली भूमिका का निर्वाह करते हैं.

1980 के सम्पूर्ण दशक, 1991 के शिया विरोधी दंगों तथा 1990 के दशक के कटु वर्षों में ईरान ही वह राज्य था जिसने इराकी शियाओं को शरण एवं समर्थन प्रदान किया. इराक युद्ध के कारण अनेक इराकी शरणार्थी इराक वापस चले गये जो बगदाद से लेकर बसरा तथा विद्यालयों, पुलिस सेवाओं, मस्जिदों, बाज़ारों, न्यायालयों, सेना तथा आदिवासी परिषदों व शासन में सक्रिय हैं. इराकी शियाओं के इराक व ईरान के मध्य निरन्तर आवागमन व स्थानान्तरण ने दोनों देशों के शिया सम्प्रदायों के मध्य अनेक स्तरीय सम्बन्धों को सृजित किया है. परिणामस्वरूप, इराकी राष्ट्रवाद को ईरान के विरुद्ध सुरक्षा कवच के रूप में प्रयोग करने की अमेरिकी सरकार की आशा सर्वथा अपूर्ण रह गयी.

ईरान एवं इराक के धार्मिक सम्प्रदायों के मध्य गठबन्धन भी अत्यन्त निकट है. इराकी अयातुल्लाओं का ईरान में प्रभाव स्पष्टत: परिलक्षित होता है. इराकी शिया धार्मिक संगठनों के अनेक वरिष्ठ नेताओं ने ईरान की राजनीति में मुख्य स्थान प्राप्त किया है. 2003 के पश्चात् अनेक धार्मिक नेताओं ने इराक वापस आकर क़ौम एवं नजफ नगरों के मध्य सहयोग को अग्रसर किया है. अयातुल्लाह अली अल-सिस्तानी का मुख्य कार्यालय क़ौम में है तथा उसके प्रतिनिधियों द्वारा एकत्र किये गये धार्मिक करों को ईरान में रखा जाता है. अनेक ईरानियों ने अयातुल्लाह सिस्तानी को धार्मिक नेता का स्थान प्रदान किया है.

धार्मिक उत्साह ने व्यवसायिक सम्बन्धों को गति प्रदान की है. कर्बला एवं नजफ के बाज़ारों व होटलों में ईरानी तीर्थयात्रियों का आगमन इराक में भूमि, सृजन एवं पर्यटन में निवेश की वृद्धि करता है.

ईरान-इराक युद्धजनित जातीय विभेदों यथा-अरबी व पारसी भेद तब उतने अधिक प्रभावी नहीं रह जाते जबकि इराक का प्रमुख धार्मिक नेता ईरानी तथा ईरान का मुख्य न्यायाधीश इराक़ी हो. यद्यपि जाती विभेद ईरान-इराक सम्बन्धों को प्रभावित करेंगे तथापि सद्दाम के पतन के पश्चात् शियाओं का उदय इस विभेद को अवश्य ही न्यून करेगा. दोनों देशों के शिया सम्प्रदायों को संगठित करने का मूल है सुन्नी सम्प्रदाय का भय.

मात्र पांच वर्ष पूर्व ईरान कट्टर सुन्नी शासन से घिरा हुआ था. पश्चिम में इराक व सऊदी अरब तथा पूर्व में पाकिस्तान व तालिबान शासित अफगानिस्तान सुन्नी शासन, मुख्यत: सद्दाम हुसैन के अन्त का ईरानियों ने स्वागत किया तथा शिया सम्प्रदाय के उदय को सुन्नी – राष्ट्रवाद के विरुद्ध रक्षक के रूप में देखा. आज इराक में ईरान की मुख्य रणनीति है कि सुन्नी द्वारा चालित ईरान-विरोधी अरब राष्ट्रवाद का इराक में पुन: उदय न हो. ईरान-इराक युद्ध के मुख्य दृष्टा व ईरान के राष्ट्रपति महमूद अहमदीनेजाद तथा ‘रेवाल्यूशनरी गार्ड’ के अनेक नेताओं का विचार है कि शिया शासित इराक ही उनकी सुरक्षा का प्रमुख स्रोत होगा.

क्षेत्र के सुन्नी सम्प्रदाय की प्रमुख चिन्ता का विषय ईरान की नवीन महत्वकांक्षायें हैं. लगभग चौथाई शताब्दी पूर्व तेहरान ने बहरीन, इराक, कुवैत, लेबनान, पाकिस्तान एवं सऊदी अरब में शिया दलों, सेना व सैन्य बलों को समर्थन प्रदान किया. ईरानी क्रान्ति शिया पहचान को पाश्तात्यवाद के विरोध से सम्बन्ध करती है जो 1979 के संकट, बेरुत में 1983 में अमेरिकी समुद्री ठिकानों में बम विस्फोट तथा तेहरान के अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय आतंकवाद को निरन्तर समर्थन में परिलक्षित होता है.

वर्तमान में ईरान की बढ़ती महत्वाकांक्षा तथा मध्यपूर्व क्षेत्र में शक्ति का मुख्य केन्द्र, नाभिकीय शक्ति के संवर्द्धन तथा अपने हितों को अंतर्राष्ट्रीय पहचान दिलाने की आकांक्षा अपने चरम पर है. यद्यपि तेहरान के नेता दक्षिणी इराक में ईरानी-प्रभावी मण्डल स्थापित करने के इच्छुक हैं किन्तु इनमें से किसी की भी यह आशा पूर्ण नहीं हो  सकती.

ईरान की बढ़ती हुयी प्रभावशालीता ने क्षेत्र के धार्मिक गुटों के सम्बन्धों को जटिल बनाया है. सन् 2003 से मिस्र, जॉर्डन तथा सऊदी अरब की सुन्नी  सरकारों ने ईरान पर इराक में संशय उत्पन्न करने का आरोप लगाया है. सुन्नी सरकारों ने तेहरान की महात्वाकांक्षाओं को अपनी शिया जनता की मांगों तथा वाशिंगटन की राजनीतिक सुधारों की पहल को बाधित करने के बहाने के रूप में प्रयुक्त किया है. पिछले अप्रैल में मिस्र के राष्ट्रपति होस्नी मुबारक ने चेताया था :- ‘’शिया मुख्य रूप से ईरान के प्रति वफ़ादार हैं न कि उस देश के प्रति जहां वे रहते हैं.’’ इस प्रकार का आचरण सुन्नी नेता प्राय: इराक की समस्याओं के प्रति अपने उत्तरदायित्तवों से ध्यान हटाने के लिए करते हैं.

सुन्नी सम्प्रदाय का आक्रामक दृष्टिकोण ईरानी नेतृत्व को चिन्तित करता है तथा अपने बढ़ते हुये प्रभाव के बावजूद तेहरान अपने पड़ोसियों के समर्थन एवं अपने नाभिकीय कार्यक्रम के लिए अन्तर्राष्ट्रीय दबावों को बाधित करने हेतु ‘अरब-गली’ की शुभेच्छाओं को प्राप्त करना चाहता है. तेहरान ने क्षेत्रीय स्थिति को दृढ़ करने एवं अपने इस कार्य में वाशिंगटन की क्षमता को न्यून करने के लिए परमाणु शक्ति को प्राप्त करने में आक्रामक प्रवृत्ति को अंगीकृत किया है.

वास्तव में, ईरान काबुल एवं बगदाद में अमेरिका-चालित शासन परिवर्तन से अत्यन्त लाभान्वित हुआ है किन्तु क्षेत्र में अमेरिकी सेना की उपस्थिति इस्लामिक गणराज्य में भय उत्पन्न करती है. अत: ईरान इराक में अमेरिका सरकार के बढ़ते प्रभाव को रोकने तथा ईरान में सरकार परिवर्तन की अमेरीकी आकांक्षा को असफल करने के लिए इराक में नियंत्रित संशय की नीति पक्षधर है. यह नीति इराक की स्थिति को 2001 में तालिबान के पतन के पश्चात् अफ़गानिस्तान की स्थिति से सर्वथा पृथक बनाती है. उस समय ईरान ने अफगानिस्तान में हामिद करज़ई की सरकार स्थापित करने में अमेरिका को सहयोग इसलिए दिया क्योंकि पारसी-भाषी एवं शिया जन अफ़गानिस्तान में अल्पमत में थे. लेकिन इराक की स्थिति अफ़गानिस्तान की तुलना में अधिक दृढ़ है. अत: इराक में बुश के नियमों की असफलता अप्रत्यक्ष रूप से तेहरान में शासन परिवर्त की अमेरिकी अभिलाषा को क्षीण करेगी.

फिर भी, दीर्घकाल में, इराक में अमेरिकी एवं ईरानी हित परस्पर सम्मिलित हो जायेंगे. वाशिंगटन एवं तेहरान दोनों इराक में स्थायित्व के इच्छुक हैं : वाशिंगटन को स्वयं को निकालने का कारण चाहिये तथा तेहरान गृह एवं समस्त क्षेत्र में अपनी स्थिति सुदृढ़ करना चाहता है. ईरान इराक में गृह-युद्ध की आशंका से भयभीत है क्योंकि यह गृह-युद्ध क्षेत्र को दो ध्रुवों में विभाजित कर देगा जिसका प्रत्यक्ष प्रभाव ईरान पर भी होगा.

ईरान में दो ऐसे समूह हैं जो ईरानी नेतृत्व को इस बात पर सहमत कर सकते हैं कि वाशिंगटन के साथ सहयोग उनके हित में है. प्रथम समूह इराकी शरणार्थियों का है जिन्होंने ईरान को अमेरिका के साथ इराक के विषय में वार्ता करने के लिए प्रेरित किया क्योंकि उनका मत है कि अमेरिका व ईरान इराक में शक्ति के दो दृढ़ स्तम्भ हैं. द्वितीय समूह उन ईरानियों का है जो इराक के धार्मिक नगरों की पवित्रता के लिए अत्यन्त चिन्तित हैं. नजफ तथा कर्बला में हुये विस्फोटों में अनेक ईरानी नागरिकों की मृत्यु हो गयी, अत: ईरानी जनता इन नगरों  में सुरक्षा व्यवस्था को सुनिश्चित करवाना चाहती है.

आगामी समय में इराक के समक्ष सर्वप्रमुख मुद्दा संवैधानिक वार्ता का, मुख्यत: संघवाद एवं तेल आय के वितरण से सम्बन्धित प्रश्नों के विषय में उपस्थित होगा. अमेरिकी राजदूत के इराक आगमन के पश्चात् ज़ल्मे ख़लीलज़ाद ने शियाओं तथा खुर्द जनों को संविधान में परिवर्तन पर सहमति के लिए उत्साहित किया जिसमें कि 2005 के अन्त में सुन्नी लोगों ने ही जनमत संग्रह में भाग लिया था. तब से वाशिंगटन एक ऐसे सौदे की आशा करता है जिसमें उदारवादी सुन्नी लोग राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया में सहभागी बनेंगे. किन्तु ऐसे सौदे में अनिश्चितता ही है.

यदि संवैधानिक वार्ता विफल होती है जो सुन्नी राजनीतिक प्रक्रिया को त्याग सकते हैं. यदि सुन्नी सहभागी होते हैं तो शियाओं के साथ सौदैबाजी अधिक जटिल हो सकती है. विगत तीन वर्षों में शिया राजनीतिक रूप से सक्रिय रहे हैं तथा सुन्नियों की विद्रोही उत्तेजनाओं को बाधित किया है.

इराक की वर्तमान कठिनाइयां वाशिंगटन तथा तेहरान को शिया तथा सुन्नियों के मध्य भविष्य के तनावों को कम करने के लिए एक मंच निर्मित करने का द्वितीय सुअवसर प्रदान करती है. यद्यपि वाशिंगटन व तेहरान अपने प्रधान मतभेदों, मुख्यत: ईरान के नाभिकीय कार्यक्रमों से सम्बन्धित विवादों को सुलझाने में सहमत नहीं है, किन्तु शीघ्र ही वे इराक मसले पर किन्ही बिन्दुओं पर सहमत हो जायेंगे यथा, दक्षिणी इराकी की सुरक्षा व्यवस्था में सुधार, शियाओं की सैन्य शक्ति को खण्डित करना तथा शिया दलों को समझौते के लिए तैयार करना.

किन्तु यदि वाशिंगटन व तेहरान किसी सामान्य स्तर पर सहमत नहीं होते हैं तो या तो इराक राजनीतिक व सामाजिक विप्लव में ग्रस्त हो जायेगा अथवा गम्भीर गृह-युद्ध में लिप्त हो जायेगा. यदि इराक का पतन होता है तो इसके भविष्य का निर्धारण एक क्षेत्रीय युद्ध द्वारा होगा. ईरान, तुर्की एवं इराक के अरब पड़ोसी संभवत: स्वहितों की संरक्षा के लिए परस्पर कलह में प्रवेश कर जायेंगे तथा इराक के खण्डों के लिए युद्धरत हो जायेंगे.

कई बार इराक की स्थिति की तुलना 1970 के दशक के प्रथम वर्षों के वियतनाम एवं 1980 के दशक के अन्तिम वर्षों के यूगोस्लाविया से की जाती है. किन्तु इसकी तुलना 1947 के ब्रिटिश भारत के साथ अधिक उपयुक्त है. भारत में न तो कोई गृह-युद्ध था, न संगठित सैन्य-बल न युद्धक-रेखा तथा न कोई क्षेत्रीय संघर्ष तथापि करोड़ों जनता मृत्यु के गाल में समा गयी या शरणार्थी बन गयी एवं देश हिन्दु-बहुल तथा मुस्लिम-बहुल क्षेत्रों में विभक्त हो गया. वर्तमान में इराक में व्यापक साम्प्रदायिक हिंसा तथा जातीय संघर्ष 60 वर्ष पूर्व भारत में घटित घटनाक्रम का स्मरण कराते हैं. यह स्थिति और भी भयावह हो सकती है यदि यह स्थिति आगे भी पतन को अग्रसर करती है तो समस्त मध्य-पूर्व क्षेत्र शिया व सुन्नी के मध्य सामप्रदायिक संघर्षों के संकट से घिर जायेगा.

(पुनर्लेखन : प्रतिमा सक्सेना, प्रवक्ता, राजनीति विज्ञान विभाग, डी.ए.वी. कॉलेड, कानपुर एवं शोधार्थी शोध-मण्डल)

प्रस्तुल लेख ‘फारेन एफेयर्स’ जुलाई-अगस्त, 2006 से साभार उद्धत. मूल लेख ‘व्हेन द शियाइट्स राइज़’ शीर्षक से प्रकाशित.

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